Match Analysis: Moreirense FC vs Rio Ave FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Conegos
Game Overview
Moreirense FC, currently ranked 5th, face Rio Ave FC, ranked 12th, in a Liga Portugal Primeira match with Moreirense showing stronger recent form and home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Moreirense have a strong recent run with 3 consecutive wins and have been scoring an average of 1.25 goals per match, allowing only 0.75. Rio Ave show inconsistency with no recent winning streak and concede almost 1.8 goals per match.
- Historically closely matched with Moreirense slightly behind Rio Ave in total wins (Moreirense 7 to Rio Ave 9 in last 22 matches), but Moreirense has the momentum with a recent home advantage and better form this season.
- No significant injuries reported affecting key starters for either side, maintaining full strength squads for this matchup.
- Match is held at Moreirense's home ground, which supports their confidence and performance consistency. No notable weather or external disruptions expected.
- Moreirense pushing to consolidate top 5 league positioning with momentum from recent wins, while Rio Ave struggle to gain ground, motivation likely higher on home side.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Moreirense FC: 155, Rio Ave FC: 195, Draw: 200 | Moreirense FC | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Moreirense FC 0: -128, Rio Ave FC 0: 108 | Moreirense FC 0 spread (win or draw) | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: 102, Under 2.25: -122 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Moreirense FC 35% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Moreirense FC at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moreirense to win, with an expectation of a low-scoring competitive match.
Predicted Score: 1-0