Match Analysis: Moreirense FC vs Casa Pia – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-27
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: Comendador Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
Game Overview
Moreirense FC hosts Casa Pia in a Primeira Liga fixture where Moreirense currently sits 5th with strong home form, while Casa Pia is 11th and inconsistent. Moreirense's solid home record and superior recent head-to-head results position them as favorites.
Key Factors to Consider
- Moreirense FC has won all three home matches this season with 12 points from 6 games. Casa Pia has been inconsistent away, managing only 7 points from 6 games with a recent draw.
- Moreirense FC holds the advantage in recent meetings, winning two of the last four, including a 3-2 victory in their last encounter.
- No significant injury updates available to suggest any key absences impacting either side.
- Playing at home at Comendador Almeida Freitas provides Moreirense a notable advantage; Casa Pia has struggled to win on the road.
- Moreirense, aiming to consolidate 5th place, has higher motivation supported by recent form; Casa Pia seeks to improve but lacks consistency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Moreirense FC: 110, Casa Pia: 275, Draw: 210 | Moreirense FC | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Moreirense FC -0.25: -125, Casa Pia +25: 105 | Moreirense FC -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2 goals: -110, Under 2 goals: -110 | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Moreirense FC 20% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Moreirense FC at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moreirense FC to win on the moneyline, with a narrow but confident margin; expect a moderate-scoring game reflecting defensive solidity.
Predicted Score: 1-0