Match Analysis: Mirassol vs Juventude – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Game Overview
Mirassol host Juventude in a crucial Brasileirão Serie A clash where Mirassol rank 4th and Juventude sit near relegation at 18th. Both teams have shown solid form recently but Mirassol demonstrate greater defensive stability and home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mirassol has gone undefeated in their last 5 matches with 2 wins and 3 draws, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Juventude have a strong recent run as well with 4 wins and 1 draw in last 5 but concede more at 2.2 goals per game.
- The head-to-head series is balanced with 1 win each and 1 draw in 3 matches since 2023. The last meeting ended in a 2-2 draw, showing a closely matched rivalry. Mirassol holds a slight edge at home historically.
- No major injury reports for either side that would significantly impact starting lineups or tactics.
- Home crowd support at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia and the motivation to maintain their higher league position favor Mirassol. Juventude face pressure due to their low table standing.
- Mirassol aim to consolidate a top-tier position aiming for continental qualification, while Juventude fight to escape relegation, likely increasing urgency but also risk exposure defensively.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Mirassol: -210, Juventude: 550, Draw: 325 | Mirassol | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Mirassol -1: -120, Juventude +1: 100 | Mirassol -1 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -112, Under 2.5: -108 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Mirassol -7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mirassol to win on moneyline, cover the -1 goal spread, and match to finish under 2.5 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0