Match Analysis: Mirassol vs Fluminense – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-09
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Estádio Municipal José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol home)
Game Overview
Mirassol hosts Fluminense in a close Brazilian Serie A clash where both teams have shown balanced recent form with Mirassol slightly ahead in the standings. Mirassol benefits from home advantage but is missing key defensive players due to suspension and injury. Fluminense arrives with some injuries and international duties but holds better recent away form and slightly better defensive stability.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mirassol has 43 points with 11 wins, showing 1.2 goals scored but also concedes around 1.6 goals per game. Fluminense has 38 points with 11 wins but only 5 draws and 9 losses, averaging similar goal scoring but better defense.
- Historically a close matchup with Mirassol having won 3 of last 5 encounters with 1 draw and no losses, but overall recent matches have been tight and low scoring.
- Mirassol is missing Jose Aldo and Lucas Ramon (suspensions), Edson Carioca and Matheus Sales (injuries), which weakens their defense. Fluminense is missing Kevin Serna (international duty), Ganso and Nonato due to injury reducing midfield creativity.
- Fluminense's key forward Everaldo leads their shots on target, indicating attacking threat. Mirassol’s home stadium atmosphere and lineup stability gives a slight edge.
- Mirassol needs points more urgently to solidify their position, while Fluminense looks to improve consistency to climb the table. Both teams motivated but Mirassol slightly more due to home crowd and current form.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Mirassol: 138, Fluminense: 220, Draw: 200 | Mirassol | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Mirassol -0.25: 105, Fluminense +25: -125 | Mirassol -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2: -128, Under 2: 108 | Under 2 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Mirassol 36% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 29% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Mirassol at 36% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Mirassol win; Spread: Mirassol -0.25; Over/Under: Under 2 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0