Match Analysis: Mirassol vs Corinthians – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-10
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Jose Maria de Campos Maia Municipal Stadium, Mirassol, BRA
Game Overview
Mirassol hosts Corinthians in a Brazilian Campeonato match. Mirassol is newly promoted to the top division this season and currently struggles near the lower end of the table, while Corinthians holds a mid-table position. Mirassol has scored 1 goal and conceded 2 in recent league matches, showing a mix of resilience and defensive vulnerabilities. Corinthians, a more established top-division club, shows stronger overall form and squad quality but may face challenges playing away.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mirassol has had mixed results with a recent 4-1 home win against Grêmio but also draws and losses in other matches. Their offense has been moderate with 1 goal scored in recent matches, while defense has been breached multiple times. Corinthians ranks 8th in the league, showing more consistent form and better defensive statistics than Mirassol, though their offense struggles to produce high numbers of shots on goal.
- Historically, Corinthians holds the upper hand given their longer tenure in the top league, though this is Mirassol's first season at this level making head-to-head data limited. Past encounters tend to favor Corinthians due to their experience and squad depth.
- No specific injury data available from recent sources for either team, suggesting both squads are likely close to full strength for this fixture.
- Playing at home provides Mirassol an advantage especially with their recent strong home win. Weather and pitch conditions in Mirassol typically favor the home side’s playstyle. Corinthians may have travel fatigue or less acclimatization to the venue.
- Mirassol is motivated to prove themselves in the top tier and gain points against a stronger opponent, critical for their survival hopes. Corinthians aims to secure points to maintain or improve league standing, motivated by better positioning prospects.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Corinthians: 140, Mirassol: 210, Draw: 220 | Corinthians win | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | Corinthians -0.25: 105, Mirassol +25: -125 | Corinthians -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -110, Under 2.25: -110 | Over 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Corinthians 8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.25 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Corinthians at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Corinthians is predicted to edge out a narrow victory given their superior squad strength and league experience, but Mirassol’s home advantage and motivation could keep the score tight. A close 2-1 win for Corinthians is anticipated.
Predicted Score: Mirassol 1 – 2 Corinthians