Match Analysis: Minnesota United FC vs Chicago Fire – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Allianz Field, Saint Paul, MN
Game Overview
Minnesota United FC hosts Chicago Fire in a competitive MLS matchup where Minnesota holds a slight home advantage and stronger recent defensive and offensive stats. Chicago Fire however has shown solid away performances and goal-scoring ability recently.
Key Factors to Consider
- Minnesota United FC has a better defensive record allowing approximately 1.1 goals per game with 9 clean sheets this season, scoring a total of 51 goals (avg ~1.8 pts per match). Chicago Fire has a decent away record but slightly weaker defensively, conceding more goals.
- Recent matches show a competitive balance but Minnesota United FC has had an edge playing at home, winning most recent encounters and maintaining a higher clean sheet rate.
- No critical injuries reported for either side that significantly impact lineup or formations; both expected to field near full-strength squads.
- Home field advantage is significant at Allianz Field with Minnesotaβs strong fan support. Weather is typical for the region and should not disrupt play.
- Minnesota United FC motivated to solidify playoff positioning; Chicago Fire seeks to reverse recent away losses and gain ground in standings.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Minnesota United FC: -101, Chicago Fire: +234, Draw: +285 | Minnesota United FC | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Minnesota United FC -0.5: -105, Chicago Fire +50: -127 | Minnesota United FC -0.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 3.5: +129, Under 3.5: -172 | Over 3.5 goals | β β β ββ 66% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Minnesota United FC 9% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3.5 33% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 3.5 at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Minnesota United FC to win on the moneyline, Minnesota United FC to cover the -0.5 spread, and over 3.5 goals scored total.
Predicted Score: 3-1