Match Analysis: Millwall vs Middlesbrough – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: The Den
Game Overview
The matchup between Millwall and Middlesbrough in the EFL Championship round 2 features two historically close rivals with balanced head-to-head records, but recent form favors Millwall considerably.
Key Factors to Consider
- Millwall has won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 1.0 goals per match and conceding only 0.4, showing strong form. Middlesbrough is less consistent with only 2 wins in their last 5 and a lower goal average of 0.8 scored and 0.6 conceded per game.
- Historically competitive with Middlesbrough winning 11 times and Millwall 10 times in 27 meetings since 2009, and 7 draws. Recent meetings have no draws in the last 6 encounters indicating a tendency for results.
- No significant injury data provided to indicate absences that affect starting lineups.
- The game is at Millwall's home ground, The Den, where Millwall has an 80% Asian handicap win rate recently, indicating a strong home advantage.
- As an early round in the Championship, both teams aim to build momentum but Millwall's recent winning form indicates higher confidence and motivation.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Millwall: 1.1, Draw: 2.15, Middlesbrough: 3.45 | Millwall | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Millwall: -118, Middlesbrough: -102 | Millwall -0.25 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -105, Under 2.25: -115 | Under 2.25 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Millwall 37% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Millwall at 37% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Millwall moneyline win, Millwall -0.25 spread win, Under 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0