Match Analysis: Millwall vs Coventry City – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-01
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: The Den
Game Overview
Millwall hosts Coventry City in this EFL Championship fixture where both teams have shown mixed recent form. Coventry City is slight favorite in betting markets but recent performances and historical data suggest a tight contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Millwall's recent form is mixed with two draws and one win in last four league matches; Coventry City has also struggled for consistent wins but holds a slight edge in attack with key scorers like Victor Torp and Haji Wright.
- Historically, Coventry City leads narrowly in head-to-head with 9 wins to Millwall's 7 with 3 draws in 19 total meetings. Recent H2H matches are balanced and tend to yield moderate scoring (average 2.5 goals)[1][2][8].
- No major injury news significantly affecting starting lineups for either side, allowing both teams to field near full strength squads.
- Match played at The Den, home ground advantage for Millwall, who tend to perform better at home but face a motivated Coventry side traveling strong.
- Both teams need points to climb the Championship table; Millwall wants to defend home ground, Coventry City looks to leverage recent attacking form, indicating high motivation on both sides.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Millwall: 190, Coventry City: 129, Draw: 230 | Coventry City | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Coventry City -0.25: 108, Millwall +25: -128 | Coventry City -0.25 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -110, Under 2.5: -110 | Under 2.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Coventry City 26% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Coventry City at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Expect a closely contested match with Coventry City edging Millwall on a slight difference in attack potency and current betting odds favoring Coventry.
Predicted Score: 1-2