Match Analysis: Metz vs Marseille – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-04
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz
Game Overview
A Ligue 1 clash between struggling Metz at home and strong favorite Marseille, who sit 3rd in the league with superior offense and defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Marseille is in good form, conceding just 1 goal in 6 matches with strong attacking output led by Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (3 goals). Metz has struggled defensively, conceding 12 goals with limited scoring.
- Recent H2H favors Marseille with consistent wins, including a 2-0 predicted margin and clear dominance in shots and chances generated.
- No major injuries reported for Marseille. Metz has standard squad availability but lacks top-impact players.
- Match at Metz home ground but atmospheric or weather conditions unlikely to notably affect Marseilleβs gameplay.
- Marseille is motivated to consolidate top-3 position; Metz faces pressure to avoid bottom-table zone, but quality gap is significant.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | marseille: -210, metz: +500, draw: +355 | Marseille | β β β β β 80% |
Spread | marseille_-1.25: +105, metz_+1.25: -125 | Marseille -1.25 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | over_3: -105, under_3: -115 | Over 3 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Marseille 3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Marseille to win
Predicted Score: Marseille 3 – 1 Metz