Match Analysis: Mallorca vs Atlético Madrid – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 2:15 PM UTC
- Location: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
Game Overview
Atlético Madrid enters as a clear favorite in this La Liga matchup against Mallorca, favored by recent form, head-to-head dominance, and better squad depth. Mallorca have struggled to secure wins this season and Atlético look to consolidate their status with a disciplined and pragmatic approach.
Key Factors to Consider
- Atlético Madrid holds a stronger recent La Liga form with 1-2-1 compared to Mallorca's 0-1-3. Atlético’s solid defense and ability to capitalize on chances contrasts with Mallorca’s challenges in converting form into wins.
- Atlético Madrid has won 7 of the last 10 meetings. Matchups often yield low scoring affairs with an average of about 2.3 goals per game.
- No specific critical injuries reported for Atlético Madrid. Mallorca’s squad depth and injury status could adversely affect their competitiveness.
- The game will be played at Mallorca’s home ground with moderate pressure on the home side. Atlético Madrid’s recent tough schedule, including a Champions League match against Liverpool, might affect their freshness but their squad depth offsets this.
- Atlético Madrid is motivated to secure 3 points to stay competitive in La Liga standings, while Mallorca seeks to break out of a poor run but lacks confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Atlético Madrid: -134, Mallorca: +390, Draw: +260 | Atlético Madrid | ★★★★☆ 74% |
Spread | Atlético Madrid -0.75: -102, Mallorca +75: -118 | Atlético Madrid -0.75 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -110, Under 2.25: -110 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Atlético Madrid -8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Atlético Madrid to win straight up; Under 2.5 goals
Predicted Score: Atlético Madrid 1 – 0 Mallorca