Match Analysis: Lyon vs Paris Saint Germain – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 7:45 PM UTC
- Location: Groupama Stadium
Game Overview
Lyon hosts Paris Saint-Germain in a high-stakes Ligue 1 clash. PSG enters as favorites, but Lyon’s strong home form and recent attacking output suggest a competitive contest. Both teams are coming off tough European fixtures, adding an element of fatigue and motivation.
Key Factors to Consider
- PSG has won 7 of their last 11 games, including a dominant 7-2 win over Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League. Lyon has won 6 of their last 11, with 3 of their last 5 games won outright and 3 of their last 5 against the spread. Lyon’s home record is solid, but PSG’s attacking firepower is superior.
- PSG has won 8 of the last 10 meetings in all competitions, including the last 5 in a row. At least 3 goals have been scored in each of the last 5 meetings, with PSG often prevailing in high-scoring affairs.
- No major injuries reported for either side. PSG’s lineup is strong, with Kvaratskhelia, Ramos, and Barcola leading the attack. Lyon’s squad is also at full strength.
- Both teams are coming off tough European nights, which may impact performance. The match is at Groupama Stadium, Lyon’s home ground, where they have been strong this season.
- PSG is chasing the league title and will be motivated to maintain their lead. Lyon is fighting for a top-four finish and will be highly motivated to secure a win against the league leaders.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 300, away: -124, draw: 285 | Paris Saint Germain | Not available |
| Spread | home: 102, away: -122 | Paris Saint Germain -0.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: -125, under: 105 | Over 2.75 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Paris Saint Germain 5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.75 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
PSG to win, but Lyon will score. The match is likely to be high-scoring, with both teams finding the net. PSG’s superior attacking quality should see them edge the game, but Lyon’s home form and attacking ability make them a threat.
Predicted Score: Lyon 1-2 Paris Saint Germain