Match Analysis: Lyon vs Marseille – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-31
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: Groupama Stadium, Lyon, France
Game Overview
The match between Lyon and Marseille in France Ligue One is a competitive fixture with a strong historically balanced rivalry. Both teams have shown mixed recent performances, but Lyon has a slight edge playing at home. The match features tactical battles with both sides motivated to secure vital league points early in the season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lyon has won 18 of the last 46 meetings against Marseille and averages 1.61 goals scored per game with a 1.33 concession rate. Marseille won 14 matches out of these 46 and scores 1.33 goals per game on average but concedes 1.61. Lyon's home advantage and recent form slightly favor them.
- The H2H record is relatively balanced with Lyon winning 18, Marseille 14, and 14 draws in 46 encounters. At Lyon's ground, Lyon has been unbeaten in recent matches against Marseille with 2 wins. However, Marseille has had success in other recent clashes including an away win in February 2025. This implies a competitive and close contest.
- No specific key injuries reported for either side for this match based on current available data. Both squads are expected near full strength.
- The match is played at Lyon's home stadium, Groupama Stadium, giving Lyon a home crowd advantage. Weather or other external disruptions have not been indicated and should not affect the game notably.
- Both teams are early in the 2025/26 Ligue 1 season and motivated to improve league standing. Lyon benefits from playing at home which increases their drive for a positive result. Marseille aims to disrupt this and gain points away.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lyon: 1.68, Marseille: 1.48, Draw: 2.65 | Marseille win | β β β ββ 52% |
| Spread | Lyon: -103, Marseille: -117 | Marseille on spread | β β β ββ 55% |
| Over/under | Over: -119, Under: -101 | Under 3 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Marseille 7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3 19% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 3 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given historical data, current odds, and context, Lyon are slight favorites to win at home, but a draw or Marseille win remains reasonably probable. Expect a tight, competitive game possibly with moderate scoring around 2-3 goals.
Predicted Score: 1-2