Match Analysis: Lyon vs FC Basel – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-23
- Time: 4:45 PM UTC
- Location: Groupama Stadium, Lyon, France
Game Overview
Lyon, playing at home, faces FC Basel in a crucial UEFA Europa League Group phase match, with both teams showing solid recent performance in their domestic leagues and European fixtures.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lyon is unbeaten in 13 of their last 14 Europa League matches, showing strong continental form despite recent close Ligue 1 losses. Basel has good momentum with recent 3-0 wins domestically and a 2-0 victory over Stuttgart in Europe, but less consistent overall.
- Recent H2H data show a competitive balance with both sides winning games; however, Lyonβs home advantage at Groupama Stadium historically tips close fixtures in their favor.
- Lyon will miss RΓ©my Descamps, Orel Mangala, and Ernest Nuamah to injury, slightly reducing midfield and attacking depth. Baselβs Finn van Breemen and Keigo Tsunemoto are sidelined, impacting their defensive lineup.
- The matchβs importance for group standings coupled with Lyonβs home support and familiar conditions at Groupama Stadium create a motivating atmosphere for the home side.
- Both teams need points to advance, but Lyonβs unbeaten European run and stronger position in group motivate a confident and attacking approach at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lyon: -184, Draw: 350, FC Basel: 420 | Lyon | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Lyon (-1): -118, FC Basel (+1): -112 | Lyon -1 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 3: -130, Under 3: 100 | Over 3 Goals | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lyon 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Lyon to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: 2-1