Match Analysis: Lorient vs Toulouse – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stade du Moustoir, Lorient
Game Overview
This Ligue 1 matchup features 16th-place Lorient hosting 9th-place Toulouse. Toulouse has been in better form and holds a superior league position. Lorient has struggled defensively and offensively in recent matches.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lorient sits 16th with 9 points (2W, 3D, 6L), conceding 25 goals, showing poor defense and limited scoring (1.3 goals per match). Toulouse is 9th with 15 points (4W, 3D, 4L), with better defensive record (conceded 15 goals) and a more balanced attack (1.6 goals per match). Toulouse has recent away form of 40% win rate in last five away games.
- Toulouse is undefeated in last 6 away matches against Lorient across all competitions, indicating psychological advantage for the visitors.
- No specific injury information available from data sources; no significant absences reported that could heavily impact lineups.
- Match played at Stade du Moustoir in Lorient; home advantage moderate but mitigated by Lorient's poor home form (40%). Weather or other external conditions not reported as impactful.
- Lorient fights to escape relegation zone with urgent need for points, whereas Toulouse pushes for a European qualification spot, suggesting slightly higher motivation and stability for Toulouse.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 195 (Lorient), 140 (Toulouse), 220 (Draw) | Toulouse | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Lorient +25 (-128), Toulouse -0.25 (108) | Toulouse -0.25 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25 (-118), Under 2.25 (-102) | Over 2.25 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toulouse 20% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Toulouse at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toulouse Moneyline
Predicted Score: 1-2