Match Analysis: Lorient vs Brest – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-19
- Time: 3:15 PM UTC
- Location: Stade du Moustoir, Lorient
Game Overview
A tightly matched Ligue 1 contest between mid-table Lorient and Brest, both with similar points and inconsistent recent form, making for a close competitive game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lorient (7 points from 7 games) and Brest (8 points from 7 games) show similar mid-table form with no strong winning streaks. Lorient has a neutral goal difference; Brest's form is slightly worse defensively with a -7 goal difference.
- Recent direct matchups have been close with no dominant winner; probabilities lean slightly towards Lorient but Brest remains competitive with ~40% win chances for each side and low draw probabilities.
- No major injury reports for either side impacting key starters, maintaining balanced squads for the match.
- Home advantage slightly favors Lorient playing at Stade du Moustoir; weather and travel conditions are standard and not expected to influence the match unusually.
- Both teams seek mid-table stability and points to climb the table, with Lorient possibly having a slight edge due to home crowd and marginally better recent odds.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Lorient: 145, Draw: 253, Brest: 178 | Lorient | β β β ββ 58% |
Spread | Lorient -0.25: 105, Brest +25: -125 | Lorient -0.25 | β β β ββ 55% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: -108, Under 2.5: -112 | Under 2.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Lorient 18% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Lorient at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Lorient win; Spread: Lorient -0.25; Over/Under: Under 2.5 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0