Match Analysis: Liverpool vs Everton – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-20
- Time: 11:30 AM UTC
- Location: Anfield
Game Overview
Liverpool hosts Everton in the 2025/26 Premier League Merseyside Derby at Anfield. Liverpool has started the season undefeated with four straight wins and lead the table with 12 points. Everton sits mid-table with inconsistent results, having 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in recent league matches. Liverpool is expected to dominate possession and press high, while Everton will likely adopt a counter-attacking strategy hoping to capitalize on limited chances.
Key Factors to Consider
- Liverpool has been in excellent form, winning all four Premier League matches so far including high-profile victories over Arsenal and Burnley. Their defense has been solid with multiple clean sheets and their attack potent with players like Mohamed Salah scoring regularly. Everton's form is mixed, showing defensive solidity but struggling for consistency and scoring. Their last few results include a win against Wolves and a draw with Liverpool in February 2025.
- Liverpool has dominated recent encounters, winning most of the last five league meetings, including a 1-0 victory at Everton in April 2025 and a 2-0 win at Anfield in October 2023. Everton's last derby win at Anfield came several seasons ago, and overall Liverpool has had the upper hand recently in the Merseyside Derby.
- No significant recent injury updates were reported for Liverpool or Everton, suggesting both teams are likely at or near full strength for this fixture.
- The match significance is amplified by local rivalry and Liverpool's pursuit of a fifth straight league win. Evertonβs motivation is to upset the unbeaten league leaders and improve their inconsistent season. The game is at Liverpool's home ground, Anfield, giving them a strong home advantage.
- Liverpool is motivated to maintain their 100% start and build momentum to lead the title race. Everton aims to bounce back from inconsistent results and claim a rare derby victory that could propel them higher in the table.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Everton: 540, Liverpool: -230, Draw: 370 | Liverpool win | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Everton: 1.5 -152, Liverpool: -1.5 114 | Liverpool to cover -1.5 spread | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -171, Under 2.5: 127 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Liverpool -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 -8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Liverpool at -7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Liverpool to win 2-1, edging Everton who will score on the counter but lack the consistency to take points away from Anfield.
Predicted Score: 2-1