Match Analysis: Liverpool vs Aston Villa – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Anfield
Game Overview
Liverpool enter this fixture with inconsistent form, sitting 7th in the Premier League with five wins, no draws, and four losses. Aston Villa have been in strong form with four wins and three draws, including a recent win over Manchester City, placing them 8th. Liverpool have defensive frailties, especially on set-pieces, while Villa are motivated and well-organized under Unai Emery.
Key Factors to Consider
- Liverpool have struggled defensively and recently lost four league games, whereas Aston Villa are on a five-game unbeaten streak and show solid attacking and defensive cohesion.
- Liverpool lead the historical series 103-59 with 43 draws and are unbeaten against Villa since October 2020. Last season Liverpool won 2-0 away but had a late winning goal.
- Aston Villa will miss Harvey Elliott due to loan rules, and also likely absences of Tielemans and Buendia. Jadon Sanchoβs fitness is uncertain. Liverpool have not reported major absences, but defensive issues remain.
- Match at Anfield favours Liverpool historically, boosting their confidence. However, Liverpool's recent squad rotation in the Carabao Cup puts added pressure on them here. Villaβs recent win over Man City boosts morale.
- Liverpool need points to recover from early season setbacks and defend their title aspirations. Aston Villa are motivated by Champions League qualification ambitions and the chance to improve league standing.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Liverpool: -156, Aston Villa: 350, Draw: 320 | Liverpool | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | Liverpool(-0.5): -160, Aston Villa(+50): 120 | Liverpool -0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5: 130, Under 3.5: -174 | Under 3.5 goals | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Liverpool 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 3.5 2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Liverpool at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Liverpool to win on the moneyline, Liverpool -0.5 on spread, under 3.5 goals total
Predicted Score: 2-1