Match Analysis: Lille vs Metz – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-26
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Decathlon Arena Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Game Overview
Lille hosts Metz in a Ligue 1 match where Lille, currently 6th with 14 points, is heavily favored against bottom-table Metz with only 2 points. Lille shows strong home form and better overall quality, while Metz struggles offensively and defensively.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lille has demonstrated solid recent form and sits comfortably in the top half of the table, while Metz is at the bottom, with poor results and low scoring output.
- In 13 recent meetings, Lille has won 7 times (54%), drawn 4, and lost only 2 to Metz, showing a clear historical advantage.
- No significant injury news impacting Lille's key players; Metz's squad depth is weak with some minor injuries reported but not critical.
- Match is at Lilleβs home stadium, providing a strong home advantage. No weather or scheduling concerns are expected.
- Lille aims to solidify a top 6 position and maintain momentum, while Metz fights to escape the relegation zone, but their form suggests low confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -320, away: 750, draw: 435 | Lille | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | home_-1.5: -112, away_+1.5: -108 | Lille -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | over_3: -105, under_3: -115 | Over 3 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lille -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Lille to win the match comfortably with goals from both sides, expecting an open game exceeding 3 total goals.
Predicted Score: 3-1