Match Analysis: Lille vs Auxerre – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Apr 20, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Game Overview
Lille (5th, 50 PTS) hosts Auxerre (10th, 38 PTS) in a Ligue 1 clash. Lille is unbeaten in their last 7 league meetings against Auxerre (3 draws, 4 wins) and has strong home form (5 wins in last 6 home matches). Auxerre has 3 wins in their last 6 league games but struggles in head-to-head away fixtures.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lilleβs home dominance includes 25 unbeaten matches in 28 recent home games. Auxerreβs under-2.5-goals trend in away games (3 of last 6) highlights defensive caution.
- Lille unbeaten in last 7 H2H matches (4 wins, 3 draws). Most recent meeting (Jan 10, 2025) ended 0-0.
- No specific injury data available in sources.
- Lilleβs UEFA Europa League qualification push adds urgency. Auxerreβs mid-table position reduces pressure.
- Lille seeks top-4 finish; Auxerre aims to solidify mid-table standing.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Lille (-195), Draw (340), Auxerre (500) | Lille | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Lille -1 (-118), Auxerre +1 (-102) | Lille -1 covers | β β β ββ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 (-115), Under 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Lille -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 27% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Lille win (1-0 or 2-0) with under 2.5 goals likely due to Auxerreβs low-scoring away trend.
Predicted Score: 2-0 Lille