Match Analysis: Libertad Asuncion vs River Plate - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-15
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Estadio Tigo La Huerta, Asuncion, Paraguay
Game Overview
This Round of 16 first-leg Copa Libertadores matchup features Libertad Asuncion hosting River Plate. Libertad has a home advantage but has shown modest recent form, while River Plate is slightly favored with stronger overall performance and away resilience.
Key Factors to Consider
- Libertad has a recent run of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with an average of 1.00 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match, possessing 31.3% ball control. River Plate is unbeaten in six, scoring 1.47 goals on average with a stronger attack and 41.8% possession.
- Recent head-to-head meetings show a balanced but slightly River Plate-favored record, with two encounters last season and tight scorelines.
- No explicit injury reports available; assume both sides near full strength based on latest data.
- The match venue favors Libertad, playing at home in Asuncion, but River Plate's experience in Libertadores knockout rounds partly offsets this.
- Both teams are motivated to secure an advantage in the two-legged tie. River Plate's international pedigree may boost their competitive edge while Libertad will aim to capitalize on home conditions.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Libertad 330, River Plate -110, Draw 235 | River Plate | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Libertad +50 -115, River Plate -0.5 -115 | River Plate -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2 -140, Under 2 108 | Under 2 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | River Plate 11% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 29% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
River Plate to win on the moneyline, cover the -0.5 spread, and the match to have under 2 goals scored.
Predicted Score: 0-1
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