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Leeds United vs. Aston Villa Prediction EPL in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Leeds United vs Aston Villa – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-23
  • Time: 2:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Elland Road

Game Overview

The upcoming EPL match features Leeds United hosting Aston Villa at Elland Road. Leeds United has struggled recently with 6 losses in their past 12 matches, showing inconsistency at home. Aston Villa demonstrates better form, with 4 wins in their last 6 games across all competitions. Historical head-to-head data reflects a balanced rivalry, but Aston Villa has slightly better recent results against Leeds.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Leeds United has a weak run with 6 losses in last 12 matches, especially inconsistent at home where they have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in recent meetings with Aston Villa. Aston Villa shows stronger recent form with 4 wins in the past 6 games overall and more competitive away performances.
  • In the last 15 meetings, Leeds have won 3 times, Aston Villa 6 times, with 2 draws overall. At home, Leeds has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss against Villa. Historical data reveals a fairly even matchup, but Aston Villa edges Leeds in recent clashes.
  • No specific injury data provided in the search results; therefore, injury impact on the match is unknown at this time.
  • No remarkable external factors such as weather, scheduling congestion, or venue changes have been identified from the current information.
  • Aston Villa appears motivated by recent positive form and the chance to continue outperforming Leeds, who are likely under pressure due to recent losses and the need to gain points at home.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Aston Villa: 1.37, Leeds United: 1.98, Draw: 2.2 Aston Villa win ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Aston Villa -0.5: 1.32, Leeds United +50: 1.77 Aston Villa -0.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.5: 1.08, Under 2.5: 1.43 Under 2.5 goals ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Aston Villa 11%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 -7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Aston Villa at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Aston Villa is favored to win or at least avoid defeat due to better recent form and marginally superior head-to-head record. A low-scoring match with a balanced contest but Villa edging to victory is expected.

Predicted Score: 0-1


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Leeds United vs. Aston Villa Prediction

Match Analysis: Leeds United vs Aston Villa – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-11-23 Time: 2:00 PM UTC Location: Elland Road Game Overview The upcoming EPL match features Leeds United hosting Aston Villa at Elland Road. Leeds United has struggled recently with 6 losses in their past 12 matches, showing inconsistency at home. Aston Villa demonstrates […]

Aston Villa Leeds United November 23, 2025 Soccer

MORE FROM EPL

Manchester United vs. Everton Prediction EPL in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Manchester United vs Everton – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-24
  • Time: 8:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Old Trafford

Game Overview

Manchester United hosts Everton at Old Trafford in a Premier League Monday night fixture. United enters on a five-game unbeaten run at home with recent 2-2 draws showing resilience. Everton has patchy form, especially away with only one recent win on the road in all competitions, and has not won a Monday night Premier League game in nine attempts. The overall sentiment favors Manchester United to extend their solid home form.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Manchester United are favored with a 50.9% win probability according to the Opta supercomputer, having won their last four Premier League home games – a sharp improvement. Everton's recent away form is weak with just one win away and struggles on Monday nights (winless in nine since Dec 2021). Manchester United have managed consecutive comebacks from behind in recent matches, showing good mental strength.
  • Manchester United have been unbeaten against Everton in all meetings since April 2022, including away fixtures. Recent encounters ended in 2-2 draws such as one in February 2025 and a friendly in August 2025. Everton’s last victory over United was April 2022 at Goodison Park.
  • Benjamin Sesko of Manchester United has a knee injury and will be out for a few weeks but is expected back around the Africa Cup of Nations departure. There are no critical injury concerns mentioned for Everton around this fixture. Manchester United is managing player fitness carefully post-international break.
  • Old Trafford recently introduced one of the largest safe standing areas in the Premier League, potentially enhancing home support atmosphere. Everton’s travel and form difficulties, particularly on Mondays and away, act as external factors favoring the home side.
  • Manchester United looks motivated to capitalize on their improved home record and maintain their unbeaten run post-international break. Everton seeks to break their Monday night curse and improve poor away statistics but faces a tough challenge against a confident and improving United side.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Everton: 330, Manchester United: -135, Draw: 280 Manchester United ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Everton: 50, Manchester United: -0.5 Manchester United -0.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.5: -138, Under 2.5: 104 Over 2.5 goals ★★★☆☆ 58%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Manchester United -8%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Manchester United win

Predicted Score: 2-1


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Arsenal vs. Tottenham Hotspur Prediction EPL in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-23
  • Time: 4:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Emirates Stadium, London

Game Overview

The North London Derby between Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur is set for Sunday, November 23, 2025, at 16:30 UTC at the Emirates Stadium. Arsenal, currently leading the Premier League, will face Tottenham, who sit in fourth place. Both teams are coming off the international break, with Arsenal holding a four-point cushion at the top and Tottenham aiming to close the gap. The match is expected to be fiercely contested, with both sides dealing with injury concerns and relying on set-piece efficiency.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Arsenal has been near-perfect this season, with only one loss and a strong home record. Tottenham has shown improvement under new manager Thomas Frank, remaining unbeaten away from home and boasting the best defensive record on the road. Both teams have relied heavily on set pieces, with Arsenal scoring the most set-piece goals in the league and Tottenham conceding the fewest.
  • Arsenal has won the last three North London Derbies, their best winning run since 1987-1989. Tottenham's last win at the Emirates was in 2010, and Arsenal has been unbeaten in 31 home derbies since then. This will be the first derby since 2014 without Harry Kane or Heung-min Son, who have historically been key scorers for Tottenham against Arsenal.
  • Arsenal is missing key players, including Gabriel Magalhães (out for at least a month), Gabriel Jesus (knee), and Kai Havertz (knee). Riccardo Calafiori is questionable. Tottenham also faces an injury crisis, with several players unavailable, though specific names are not detailed in the sources.
  • The match is being played at the Emirates Stadium, which has a capacity of 60,704 and is known for its strong home support. The weather and pitch conditions are not specified, but the stadium's atmosphere is expected to be a significant factor.
  • Arsenal is motivated to maintain their lead at the top of the table, while Tottenham aims to challenge for a top-four finish and potentially close the gap on their rivals. Both teams are aware of the importance of this derby for their season ambitions.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Arsenal: -255, Tottenham Hotspur: 630, Draw: 360 Arsenal ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Arsenal: -1.5 111, Tottenham Hotspur: 1.5 -148 Arsenal -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over: 2.5 -131, Under: 2.5 -101 Under 2.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Arsenal -1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Arsenal is favored to win this match due to their strong home record, recent form, and depth despite injuries. Tottenham's away form is solid, but their injury crisis and lack of key players may hinder their performance. The match is expected to be closely contested, with Arsenal likely to edge out a narrow victory.

Predicted Score: Arsenal 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur


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Newcastle United vs. Manchester City Prediction EPL in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Newcastle United vs Manchester City – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-22
  • Time: 5:30 PM UTC
  • Location: St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, England

Game Overview

Newcastle United hosts Manchester City on November 22, 2025, at St James' Park in a Premier League clash. Newcastle currently rank 14th, struggling with inconsistent form, while Manchester City hold 2nd place with strong recent performances. Historically, Manchester City have dominated this matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Manchester City are in good form with 7 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses in 11 matches, scoring 15 more goals than conceded. Newcastle United have struggled with 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, sitting 14th in the table with 12 points and a negative goal difference.
  • In recent encounters, Manchester City have been dominant with multiple wins including a 4-0 victory in February 2025 and several 2-0 or larger margin wins. Newcastle's recent results include a 1-1 draw in September 2024 and a rare 1-0 win in September 2023, but overall City lead convincingly in wins and goals scored historically.
  • Specific injury data is not available in search results, but absence of key players could impact Newcastle more due to their smaller squad depth compared to Manchester City’s robust roster.
  • Match conditions at St James' Park could favor Newcastle somewhat due to home advantage, but Manchester City’s experience and squad quality usually neutralize this. Weather or pitch conditions unknown but assumed normal for November in Newcastle.
  • Manchester City, vying to strengthen their title challenge, will be motivated to secure maximum points against mid-table opposition. Newcastle United will look to upset a top team to climb the table and boost morale.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline manchester_city: -106, newcastle_united: 250, draw: 270 Manchester City Win ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread manchester_city: -0.5 -109, newcastle_united: 50 -122 Manchester City -0.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under over_2.5: -159, under_2.5: 119 Over 2.5 Goals ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Manchester City 13%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Manchester City at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Manchester City are favored to win given their superior form, quality, and head-to-head dominance. Expect a controlled City performance with Newcastle putting in a competitive effort but likely falling short.

Predicted Score: Manchester City 2 – 1 Newcastle United


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Fulham vs. Sunderland Prediction EPL in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Fulham vs Sunderland – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-22
  • Time: 3:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Craven Cottage, London, England

Game Overview

Fulham, positioned 15th in the Premier League, hosts Sunderland who currently rank 4th. Sunderland is in stronger form overall, but Fulham's home advantage at Craven Cottage and recent mixed performances make the match competitive. Recent meetings reflect some balanced outcomes with previous close scores.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Fulham has struggled with consistency, ranking 15th with fewer points and some recent losses and draws. Sunderland sits higher at 4th place with better stability and recent points accumulation in league matches. Fulham's attacking power is diminished due to injuries, whereas Sunderland shows balanced offensive and defensive performance.
  • Recent head-to-head matches show a competitive balance; the last five encounters include wins for both sides and draws. Notably, Sunderland won an FA Cup match 2-3 away at Fulham in 2023 and a league championship match in 2017. The historic results do not heavily favor either team.
  • Fulham is missing key player Rodrigo Muniz due to a hamstring injury expected to last until the new year, weakening their offensive options. There is no specific injury information reported for Sunderland.
  • Fulham's home advantage at Craven Cottage could influence the match. Weather conditions and pitch quality are typical for London in November with no extraordinary factors reported. Sunderland's momentum and form in away games are decent. The match timing at 15:00 UTC is standard.
  • Sunderland, entrenched in a top 4 position, are motivated to maintain or improve their standing for European qualification hopes. Fulham, lower in the table, are motivated to secure points to avoid relegation pressure.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Fulham: 1.08, Sunderland: 2.6, Draw: 2.2 Sunderland to win or draw, with Fulham less likely to win outright. ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Fulham -0.5: 1.05, Sunderland +50: 1.39 Sunderland +0.5 given their form and Fulham's inconsistency. ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 2.5: 1.14, Under 2.5: 1.52 Moderate tendency towards under 2.5 goals due to defensive setups and recent tight results. ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Fulham 25%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 -9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Fulham at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Given Sunderland's stronger league position, form, and Fulham's injury concerns, Sunderland is favored to win or at least secure a draw. However, the home advantage for Fulham and Sunderland's slightly lower odds for winning suggest a cautious prediction favoring Sunderland with a close scoreline.

Predicted Score: 1-1


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Brighton and Hove Albion vs. Brentford Prediction EPL in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Brighton and Hove Albion vs Brentford – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-22
  • Time: 3:00 PM UTC
  • Location: American Express Stadium, Falmer, England

Game Overview

Brighton & Hove Albion host Brentford in a Premier League clash at the American Express Stadium. Both teams are closely matched in the league table, with Brighton currently 11th and Brentford 12th, each with 16 points after 11 games. Brighton has shown solid home form, while Brentford struggles away, losing four of their last five road matches and remaining winless in their last four visits to Brighton in the top flight.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Brighton has a record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a +2 goal difference. Brentford has 5 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with a 0 goal difference. Brighton's home form is stronger, while Brentford's away record is poor, having lost four of their last five away games.
  • Brentford has not won in their last four Premier League trips to Brighton. The most recent meeting was a 4-2 win for Brentford in April 2025, but Brighton held Brentford to a 0-0 draw in December 2024. Brighton has a slight edge in recent head-to-head results at home.
  • No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
  • Brighton enjoys home advantage, which is significant given Brentford's poor away form. The weather is expected to be mild with no anticipated disruptions. The match is mid-table, so both teams are motivated to climb the standings.
  • Both teams are fighting for mid-table security and potential European qualification. Brighton will be motivated to maintain their home form, while Brentford seeks to break their away losing streak.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline home: -113, away: 280, draw: 260 Brighton & Hove Albion ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread home: -0.5 -115, away: 50 -115 Brighton & Hove Albion -0.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under over: -147, under: 111 Over 2.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Brighton and Hove Albion 109%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Brighton and Hove Albion at 109% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Brighton & Hove Albion are favored to win this match due to their stronger home record and Brentford's struggles on the road. A narrow victory for Brighton is the most likely outcome, with a draw also possible given the close league positions and recent head-to-head results.

Predicted Score: Brighton & Hove Albion 2-1 Brentford


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Bournemouth vs. West Ham United Prediction EPL in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Bournemouth vs West Ham United – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-22
  • Time: 3:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, England

Game Overview

This Premier League Round 12 match features Bournemouth hosting West Ham United at the Vitality Stadium. Bournemouth currently rank 9th with 18 points, showing a mid-table form, while West Ham are struggling near the bottom in 18th place with 10 points. Bournemouth have been moderately consistent, whereas West Ham have faced difficulty finding wins this season.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Bournemouth have scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches and hold a 5-3-3 record for the current season. West Ham have not lost to Bournemouth in their last 8 meetings (4 wins, 4 draws) but haven't kept a clean sheet in 8 consecutive matches, indicating defensive frailties. West Ham's overall Premier League record this season is poor (3 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses) highlighting ongoing struggles.
  • West Ham remain unbeaten against Bournemouth in their last 8 encounters (4 wins, 4 draws), which psychologically favors West Ham despite their poor current league form. Bournemouth will seek to overturn this recent disadvantage at home.
  • No specific injury data is provided in the search results; thus, current injury status for either side is unknown.
  • The venue is Vitality Stadium, giving Bournemouth home advantage. There are no reported weather or pitch issues influencing the game.
  • Bournemouth are motivated to secure a strong league standing with a mid-table position in sight. West Ham face pressure to escape the relegation zone, likely increasing their urgency but potentially causing defensive errors.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Bournemouth: -162, West Ham United: 390, Draw: 300 Bournemouth win ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Bournemouth (-0.5): -165, West Ham United (+50): 123 Bournemouth -0.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 2.5: -167, Under 2.5: 125 Over 2.5 goals ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Bournemouth -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 -12%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Bournemouth at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bournemouth are favored to win due to home advantage, better recent form, and an opportunity to capitalize on West Ham's defensive issues. However, West Ham's unbeaten record at Bournemouth in recent meetings suggests the possibility of a draw remains significant.

Predicted Score: 2-1


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Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Crystal Palace Prediction EPL in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Crystal Palace – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
  • Time: 3:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton, England

Game Overview

Wolverhampton Wanderers hosts Crystal Palace in Premier League Round 12. Wolverhampton currently sits in 20th place with significant defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 23 goals in 11 matches. Crystal Palace occupies a more comfortable 10th place position and arrives with strong recent form, including a 2-0 victory over Brighton and remaining unbeaten against Wolverhampton in their last 5 meetings (4W, 1D). This match presents a stark contrast between a struggling home side and a well-organized visiting team.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Wolverhampton has been one of the Premier League's worst defensive teams this season, conceding nearly 2.1 goals per match. Their recent form is dire, with losses to Chelsea (0-3), Fulham (0-3), Burnley (2-3), Sunderland (0-2), and only a 3-4 defeat to Chelsea showing any attacking intent. They have managed only 7 goals in 11 matches while allowing 23, resulting in just 2 clean sheets. Crystal Palace demonstrates superior consistency with 6 clean sheets, 8 goals scored in their last 5 matches, and a more balanced goal differential (8 for, 8 against). Crystal Palace's attacking midfielder Adam Wharton has created the most big chances for the team (5), indicating structured play-building.
  • Crystal Palace has not lost to Wolverhampton in their last 5 meetings, posting 4 wins and 1 draw. This psychological advantage combined with Wolverhampton's current poor form suggests Palace enters the match as strong favorites. The away team's consistency in this fixture makes them a reliable pick.
  • Crystal Palace defender Marc Guehi is on track to return from a foot injury for Saturday's match, which would strengthen Palace's already solid defense. No significant injuries affecting key Wolverhampton players have been reported, though their overall defensive structure remains fragile regardless of personnel.
  • The match is being broadcast on Peacock in North America, indicating solid coverage for a mid-table clash. Anthony Taylor referees the match, a seasoned Premier League official. Playing at Molineux provides Wolverhampton home advantage, though their woeful home record this season significantly diminishes this benefit.
  • Crystal Palace maintains Champions League aspirations with their 10th place position and recent winning streak. Wolverhampton faces potential relegation pressure in 20th place, necessitating immediate improvement. However, Wolverhampton's recent performances suggest systemic issues beyond motivation, with defensive structures completely compromised.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline WOL +275 | Draw +244 | CRY -105 Crystal Palace Win ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread CRY -0.5 (-108) | WOL +50 (-123) Crystal Palace -0.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 2.5 (-105) | Under 2.5 (-126) Over 2.5 Goals ★★★☆☆ 59%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Crystal Palace 21%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 13%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Crystal Palace at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Crystal Palace is heavily favored to win based on superior form, unbeaten record against this opponent, defensive solidity, and Wolverhampton's catastrophic defensive record. The away team's balanced approach and clinical finishing present significant danger to Wolverhampton's leaky defense. While Wolverhampton may score given their attacking efforts in recent matches, Palace's defensive organization and experience should prove decisive. A Crystal Palace victory with moderate goal margin is the most likely outcome.

Predicted Score: Crystal Palace 2-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers


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Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest Prediction EPL in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-22
  • Time: 3:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Anfield, Liverpool, England

Game Overview

Liverpool, currently 8th in the Premier League with 18 points from 11 games, hosts 19th placed Nottingham Forest, who have 9 points. Liverpool’s form is mixed with 6 wins and 5 losses, while Nottingham Forest is struggling with 2 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses. Liverpool seeks to regain momentum in their title challenge at home against a team battling relegation.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Liverpool has been inconsistent but remains strong at home, leveraging key players like Mohamed Salah (4 goals) and Cody Gakpo (3 goals). Nottingham Forest struggles with goal difference (-10) and points, though their recent encounters show competitive matches against Liverpool.
  • Recent matches indicate competitive balance: a 1-1 draw in January 2025 and a 1-0 Forest win at Liverpool’s home in September 2024, suggesting Nottingham Forest can challenge Liverpool despite league position.
  • Current detailed injury reports are unavailable from the provided data; however, no major injury news disclosed that would significantly impact either side just before the match.
  • Playing at Anfield gives Liverpool significant home advantage with strong fan support. Ticket sales indicate high attendance and supporter enthusiasm for Liverpool.
  • Liverpool is motivated to secure three points to boost their title challenge, while Nottingham Forest is driven to escape relegation pressure, making them potentially tenacious and defensive.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Liverpool: -250, Nottingham Forest: 570, Draw: 380 Liverpool to win ★★★★☆ 80%
Spread Liverpool -1.5: 106, Nottingham Forest +1.5: -140 Liverpool to cover -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 3.5: 135, Under 3.5: -181 Under 3.5 goals ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Liverpool -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 3.5 -7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Liverpool at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Liverpool is favored to win given home advantage, superior league position, and attacking firepower, but Nottingham Forest’s recent head-to-head results suggest a cautious approach is needed. Expect a Liverpool win but with some risk of a close scoreline or draw.

Predicted Score: 2-1 Liverpool


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Burnley vs. Chelsea Prediction EPL in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Burnley vs Chelsea – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
  • Time: 12:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Turf Moor, Burnley

Game Overview

Chelsea travel to Burnley for a Premier League clash following the international break. Chelsea are in strong form as Club World Cup champions and have won their last two away matches without conceding. Burnley enter the match on a two-match losing streak and face a Chelsea side that has dominated them recently, winning each of their last six Premier League home matches against the Clarets.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Chelsea currently sit 2nd in the Premier League with 20 points from 11 matches (6W-2D-3L), while Burnley are in 3rd place with 10 points from 11 matches (3W-1D-7L). Chelsea have triumphed in each of their last seven Premier League games played at 12:30pm on Saturdays. Chelsea have also won their last two top-flight away matches without conceding, a feat not accomplished three times in a row since 2021.
  • Burnley have lost each of their last six Premier League home matches against Chelsea. Their most recent encounter at Turf Moor saw Chelsea win 4-1 in October 2023. However, Burnley did secure a creditable 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge later that season. Chelsea have scored at least 3 goals in their last 5 away matches against Burnley across all competitions.
  • No specific injury information provided in available data.
  • Chelsea face Barcelona in the Champions League shortly after this match, potentially providing additional motivation for a strong performance. Burnley's recent form has been inconsistent with a two-match losing run entering the break.
  • Chelsea seek their third consecutive Premier League victory and are well-positioned to capitalize on Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities. Burnley need to halt their losing streak and improve their home record against top opposition.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Burnley: 520 | Chelsea: -210 | Draw: 330 Chelsea Win ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Burnley +1.5 (-171) | Chelsea -1.5 (128) Chelsea -1.5 ★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under Over 2.5 (-139) | Under 2.5 (105) Over 2.5 ★★★☆☆ 64%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Chelsea 0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.5 0%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Chelsea 1-3 Burnley is the primary analytical prediction, though Chelsea are significantly favored to win. Chelsea's superior form, strong away record, dominance in the head-to-head matchup, and consistent performance in Saturday lunchtime kickoffs make them the clear favorites. Burnley may secure a consolation goal but are unlikely to overcome Chelsea's quality.

Predicted Score: Burnley 1-3 Chelsea


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