Match Analysis: Lecce vs Napoli – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-28
- Time: 5:30 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, Lecce, Italy
Game Overview
Lecce, currently ranked 16th in Serie A, will face Napoli, who are in third place. Napoli is in strong form, having not lost to Lecce in their last six meetings, while Lecce is struggling with injuries and home game losses.
Key Factors to Consider
- Napoli has been performing well in Serie A, while Lecce is in mixed form and has struggled at home. Napoli's recent away wins and strong head-to-head record favor them.
- In their last 16 meetings, Napoli has won 10 times, with Lecce winning just 2. Napoli dominates with an average of 1.81 goals scored per match.
- Lecce has several players injured, including Matias Perez, Riccardo Sottil, and Gaby Jean. Napoli also has injuries, including Alex Meret, Kevin De Bruyne, and Romelu Lukaku, which could impact their performance.
- The match is at Lecce's home stadium, which might offer them some advantage, but Napoli's strong form and head-to-head record are significant factors.
- Napoli is highly motivated to maintain their position in Serie A, while Lecce seeks to improve their standings.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lecce: 575, Napoli: -204, Draw: 325 | Napoli | β β β β β 80% |
| Spread | Lecce: 1 -102, Napoli: -1 -118 | Napoli to cover the spread | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 105, Under: 2.5 -125 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Napoli 12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Napoli at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Napoli to win due to their superior form and past performances against Lecce.
Predicted Score: 0-2