Match Analysis: Lecce vs Hellas Verona – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Via del Mare, Lecce, Italy
Game Overview
Lecce hosts Hellas Verona in a Serie A clash between two struggling sides. Lecce sits 15th, while Hellas Verona is 19th, both fighting to avoid relegation. Recent form is poor for both, with Lecce winless in five home matches and Verona winless in five away. The H2H record is tight, with Verona edging recent meetings, but Lecce won the last encounter at home. Both teams are low-scoring and defensively vulnerable, setting up a tense, low-event contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lecce averages 0.50 goals per home game and 1.30 conceded, with only one win in their last 10 home matches. Verona averages 0.60 goals per away game and 1.40 conceded, with two wins in their last 10 away. Both teams have struggled to score and keep clean sheets, with Verona failing to win any of their last five away matches.
- Verona leads the H2H with 5 wins in the last 10 meetings, Lecce has 3 wins, and 2 draws. Verona has won 5 of the last 8 H2Hs, but Lecce won the last meeting at home 1-0. At Via del Mare, Verona has won 3 of the last 5 H2Hs, Lecce 2.
- No major injuries reported for either side; both teams are at full strength.
- Lecceβs home form is abysmal, with only one win in 10 home games. Veronaβs away form is also poor, but they have a slight edge in H2H at this venue. The match is played in November, with no weather concerns. Both teams are under pressure to avoid relegation.
- Both teams are fighting for survival, but Lecceβs home struggles and Veronaβs recent H2H edge at this venue give Verona a slight psychological advantage. Lecceβs motivation is high to end their home win drought, but their form suggests they may struggle.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 174, away: 195, draw: 188 | Draw | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | home: -118, away: -102 | Lecce 0 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | over: -112, under: -108 | Under 2 | β β β β β 74% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Draw 9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 43% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 43% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 45.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Hellas Verona to win or draw (Double Chance) offers the highest EV, but for single-outcome markets, the safest high-EV play is Under 2.5 goals. Both teams are low-scoring, defensively leaky, and recent H2Hs have seen few goals. The odds on Under 2.5 are attractive given the statistical profile.
Predicted Score: 0-0