Match Analysis: Lecce vs Cagliari – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-19
- Time: 6:45 PM UTC
- Location: Via del Mare, Lecce, Italy
Game Overview
The Serie A match between Lecce and Cagliari will take place at Via del Mare stadium. Lecce is currently struggling, positioned 20th with a record of 0-1-2, while Cagliari is performing better, ranked 9th with a 1-1-1 record. Both teams have shown modest offensive stats, with Cagliari generally stronger in shots and passes, indicating a moderate probability of a low-scoring, competitive match.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cagliari shows superior offensive and passing statistics compared to Lecce, with higher shots on target and overall better team ranking (9th vs 20th). Lecce is underperforming in Serie A, with the lowest rank and fewer successful tackles and passes, indicating defensive and midfield struggles.
- Recent head-to-head data suggest balanced encounters though Cagliari has the slight edge in recent performance. Last season, the two clubs played twice with no conclusive dominance by either side, but Cagliariβs superior league standing hints at better form.
- No explicit up-to-date injury data available from current sources; absence of key players could affect both teams but no confirmed major injuries reported.
- The match venue is Lecce's home ground, potentially giving Lecce some advantage despite their current form. No extreme weather or other disruptive conditions reported. Motivation might be higher for Lecce to avoid relegation given their last place.
- Lecce is highly motivated to improve from last place and gain points at home, facing relegation pressure. Cagliari seeks to consolidate mid-table position and capitalize on Lecceβs weaknesses to maintain upward momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cagliari: 185, Lecce: 177, Draw: 195 | Cagliari win | β β β ββ 60% |
| Spread | Cagliari: 0 -108, Lecce: 0 -112 | Cagliari +0 (Draw no bet) | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 2: -103, Under 2: -117 | Under 2 goals | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cagliari 23% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 21% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Cagliari at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The analysis indicates a cautious lean towards a Cagliari win due to their better form and league standing, but the home advantage of Lecce and defensive trends suggest a low-scoring game with a chance of draw or narrow Cagliari victory.
Predicted Score: 0-1