Match Analysis: Le Havre vs Lorient – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 3:15 PM UTC
- Location: Stade Oceane, Le Havre, France
Game Overview
Le Havre and Lorient meet in a Ligue 1 match where both teams are struggling in the lower half of the table, with Le Havre 13th and Lorient 16th. Both sides have had challenging starts to the season, with Le Havre securing a single win against Nice and Lorient suffering consecutive heavy defeats after an initial 4-0 win.
Key Factors to Consider
- Le Havre have won 1 out of 4 matches, showing some offensive strength but defensive vulnerabilities, conceding in every game. Lorient started strong with a 4-0 win but then conceded 11 goals in two heavy losses, indicating defensive instability.
- Recent head to head between Le Havre and Lorient is balanced with 2 wins each and 3 draws. The last competitive match ended in a 3-3 draw, and recent games have featured high goal-scoring outcomes, often with 3 or more goals.
- No specific injury data available; presumed no major absences that significantly alter team strength based on current sources.
- Match is held at Le Havreβs home ground, Stade Oceane, which could give them a slight home advantage. Weather and pitch conditions unknown but no notable external disruptions reported.
- Both teams are motivated to improve their standings early in the season, making this a potentially intense and competitive match as both seek valuable points.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Le Havre: 116, Lorient: 220, Draw: 245 | Le Havre win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Le Havre -0.25: -112, Lorient +25: -108 | Le Havre -0.25 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -110, Under 2.5: -110 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Le Havre 12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the recent form and head-to-head history, a closely contested match is expected with goals from both sides. The balanced head-to-head record and current struggles suggest a draw or narrow Le Havre win as the most probable outcomes.
Predicted Score: 2-1