Match Analysis: LDU Quito vs Botafogo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-21
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado, Quito
Game Overview
This second leg matchup in the Copa Libertadores Round of 16 features LDU Quito hosting Botafogo after the first leg in Rio de Janeiro. Botafogo carries momentum from a strong group stage and recent home advantage, while LDU Quito seeks to leverage home conditions and altitude in Quito.
Key Factors to Consider
- Botafogo showed solid form advancing as second in Group A with 12 points, and has a keen defensive record at home, keeping 4 clean sheets in last 5 home Libertadores matches. LDU Quito have a less consistent recent form, including a recent away loss in their domestic league and limited recent Libertadores success at home.
- The only recent reported clash saw Botafogo win 2-1 at home in a previous encounter. Overall, Botafogo has a slightly stronger historical edge, especially playing at home.
- No major injury concerns reported for either team before this match; new Botafogo signings settled in with no disruptions.
- LDU Quito benefits from home altitude conditions which can be challenging for visiting teams like Botafogo, but Botafogo has previously shown resilience in away Libertadores matches.
- Botafogo, as defending champions and with a streak of strong home performances, hold strong motivation to progress in the tournament. LDU Quito needs a positive home result to overturn the initial deficit and continue in the competition.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Home: 125, Away: 245, Draw: 220 | Home (LDU Quito) win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | LDU Quito -0.25: -125, Botafogo +25: -105 | Botafogo +0.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: 118, Under 2.5: -155 | Under 2.5 goals | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | LDU Quito 26% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 2% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: LDU Quito at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Botafogo to win (Moneyline), LDU Quito +0.25 goals (Spread), Under 2.5 goals (Over/Under)
Predicted Score: 1-1