Match Analysis: Lazio vs Cagliari – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-03
 - Time: 7:45 PM UTC
 - Location: Stadio Olimpico
 
Game Overview
Lazio hosts Cagliari in Serie A, with Lazio favored at home after a strong defensive run and recent win over Juventus. Cagliari has struggled for consistency and faces a tough test against a disciplined Lazio side.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lazio has shown tactical discipline and defensive solidity, with 5 clean sheets in 9 games and a save percentage of 84.4%. Their xGA is 12.3, but they've conceded only 7 goals, indicating overperformance. Cagliari has struggled defensively, with losses to Bologna and Inter, and only occasional resilience in draws.
 - Lazio has a strong historical advantage over Cagliari, especially at home, where they typically control the tempo and limit scoring opportunities for the visitors.
 - No major injuries reported for either side; both teams are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
 - Lazio is at home with a strong defensive record, while Cagliari is on the road and has shown vulnerability in away matches. The match is expected to be tightly contested, with Lazio likely to dominate possession.
 - Lazio is motivated to build on their recent win over Juventus and solidify their position in the league. Cagliari is fighting for points to avoid relegation, but their recent form suggests they may struggle against top-half teams.
 
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence | 
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -170, draw: 290, away: 475 | Lazio | β β β β β 74% | 
| Spread | home: -1 105, away: 1 -125 | Lazio -1 | β β β ββ 68% | 
| Over/under | over: 2.5 102, under: 2.5 -122 | Under 2.5 | β β β β β 72% | 
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick | 
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lazio -5% | 
| Spread | N/A | 
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 27% | 
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Lazio to win the match with a clean sheet, as their defensive discipline and home advantage should be enough to overcome Cagliari's inconsistent attack.
Predicted Score: Lazio 2-0 Cagliari