Match Analysis: Inter Milan vs AC Milan – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-23
- Time: 7:45 PM UTC
- Location: San Siro, Milan
Game Overview
The Derby della Madonnina between Inter Milan and AC Milan is one of the most iconic fixtures in Serie A and world football. Both teams share the San Siro stadium and have a historically tight rivalry with Inter winning 80 matches and AC Milan 71 out of over 200 meetings across competitions. Inter Milan currently hold recent superiority, winning their last six meetings and clinching the 2024 Serie A title after beating Milan. The match is critical for both sides with Inter looking to maintain dominance and Milan eager to reverse recent results.
Key Factors to Consider
- Inter Milan is in strong form, averaging 2.36 goals scored per match with 5 clean sheets in Serie A, while AC Milan averages 1.55 goals per game and has not lost in their last 5 encounters with Inter (3 wins, 2 draws). Inter is fourth in the league and Milan is third away. Inter has an edge in goalscoring and defensive solidity.
- Historically close, Inter leads with 80 wins against Milan's 71, with 67 draws overall. Recent head-to-head results favor Inter who have won 6 consecutive derbies, including a 2-1 win in April 2024 that secured the Scudetto. Across the last 53 matches, Inter won 27 times and Milan 16 times. The derby is played at their shared venue, San Siro.
- Inter Milan will miss Raffaele Di Gennaro, Denzel Dumfries, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, and Matteo Darmian due to injuries. AC Milan has Santiago Gimenez unavailable.
- The shared stadium creates a high-pressure, uniquely intense atmosphere that benefits teams with strong mental resilience. The derby recently decided the Serie A title adding extra motivation. Coaching strategies and form on the day will be crucial. Weather and pitch conditions at San Siro are expected to be standard for November evening with no major disruptions forecasted.
- Inter enters motivated to extend their winning streak and defend their league title, having decisively won the last derby. AC Milan, while unbeaten in recent derby meetings, seeks to gain momentum for their title challenge and close the gap in the standings, adding fierce motivation to upset the favorites.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | AC Milan: 300, Inter Milan: -105, Draw: 240 | Inter Milan | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | AC Milan +50: -115, Inter Milan -0.5: -105 | Inter Milan -0.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: -115, Under 2.5: -105 | Over 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Inter Milan -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Inter Milan to win narrowly
Predicted Score: 2-1