Match Analysis: Inter Miami CF vs Atlanta United FC – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Chase Stadium, Fort Lauderdale, USA
Game Overview
Inter Miami CF will host Atlanta United FC in an MLS regular season match at Chase Stadium on October 11, 2025. Miami is positioned strongly in the league, currently 3rd with 59 points after 32 games, showing solid home form with 10 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses. Atlanta United struggles in 14th place with 27 points, and particularly poor away form, managing only 1 win in 16 away matches. Miami recently defeated New England Revolution 4-1, showcasing strong offensive capabilities led by Lionel Messi and Jordi Alba, while Atlanta United lost 0-1 away to LA FC and faces key injuries impacting their lineup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Inter Miami CF displays strong performance overall and at home, ranking 5th in home matches. Star players like Lionel Messi (24 goals in 26 matches) and Jordi Alba (13 assists) lead the squad. Atlanta United FC has struggled all season, especially away, with poor scoring and defense (9:30 goal difference away). Their key players, including Miguel Almiron, are performing moderately but injuries to Brooks Lennon and Matthew Edwards weaken their squad.
- Inter Miami CF and Atlanta United played 5 times last season with mixed outcomes, but Miami holds the ranking advantage this season and won the only matchup played this season so far. Historically Miami's form and home advantage offer a positive edge over Atlanta.
- Atlanta United FC is missing Brooks Lennon (Achilles tendon injury) and Matthew Edwards (hamstring injury), both negatively impacting their squad depth. Inter Miami CF has no major injury concerns reported.
- The match was rescheduled from June to October due to Inter Miamiβs participation in the FIFA Club World Cup round of 16, potentially affecting team momentum or fitness. However, Miami's home stadium and fan support remain an advantage.
- Inter Miami CF is motivated to secure a strong finish in the MLS standings and build on recent big wins, while Atlanta United aims to improve their poor form but faces a challenging away fixture with a depleted squad.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -198, away: 430, draw: 380 | Inter Miami CF win | β β β β β 82% |
| Spread | home: 119, away: -159, spread_value: 1.5 | Inter Miami CF -1.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | over: -109, under: -122, line: 3.5 | Over 3.5 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Inter Miami CF 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 3.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Inter Miami CF is favored to win comfortably based on form, home advantage, and squad strength.
Predicted Score: Inter Miami CF 3 – 1 Atlanta United FC