Match Analysis: Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-24
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Shell Energy Stadium, Houston, TX
Game Overview
Houston Dynamo (7-8-11) hosts San Jose Earthquakes (8-8-11) in an MLS match with both teams underperforming slightly this season. Houston ranks 20th with 29 points and a negative goal differential of -9, while San Jose sits 19th with 32 points and a positive goal differential of +3. Houston concedes more goals on average but plays at home, which has provided a moderate boost. San Jose has more clean sheets and a marginally better expected goals profile.
Key Factors to Consider
- Houston has scored 33 goals and conceded 42, with 8 clean sheets. Their defense is porous, conceding 1.62 goals per 90 minutes. San Jose scores slightly less frequently but has a better defensive record and more clean sheets, standing at +3 goal differential. Houstonβs xG is 32.8 versus xGA 36.4 indicating underperformance in defense.
- Historically, these teams have been closely matched, reflected by their adjacent league positions and similar records (Houston 7W-8D-11L, San Jose 8W-8D-11L). Recent H2H favors San Jose slightly but nothing conclusive to skew prediction heavily.
- No critical injury information from the sources, expected starting goalkeepers Jonathan Bond (Houston) and Daniel (San Jose) are confirmed.
- Houston benefits from home advantage at Shell Energy Stadium. Weather and travel impact appear neutral with no documented disruptions.
- Both teams are hovering near the bottom of the standings with motivation to improve late in the season. Houston is seeking to capitalize on home turf, while San Jose aims to leverage their recent better form and defensive solidity.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: +106, away: +222, draw: +280 | Houston Dynamo | β β β ββ 62% |
Spread | Houston Dynamo -0.5: +101, San Jose Earthquakes +50: -133 | Houston Dynamo -0.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Over/under | over 2.5: -179, under 2.5: +132 | Under 2.5 goals | β β β ββ 61% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Houston Dynamo 7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 42% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 42% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Houston Dynamo to win on the moneyline, covering the -0.5 goal spread, and the match to stay under 2.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 2-1