Match Analysis: Hellas Verona vs Cagliari – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-26
- Time: 2:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Verona, Italy
Game Overview
Hellas Verona and Cagliari face off in Serie A Round 8 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi. Verona is struggling with no wins in seven games (D4, L3), sitting 17th, while Cagliari is 13th with a moderate start, unbeaten in two of their last three games (D2, L1).
Key Factors to Consider
- Hellas Verona has failed to win any of their opening seven Serie A matches this season, scoring just two goals, with a historically poor home record (1 win in last 16 home games). Cagliari has a better start with 8 points from 7 matches, including 1 win and 1 draw on the road, but have only won 2 of their last 13 away games.
- In their head-to-head history, Hellas Verona holds a slight advantage with 8 wins against Cagliariβs 5, along with 4 draws.
- No specific current injury updates were found for either team, implying both may have close to full squads available.
- Verona faces pressure due to their historical trend of relegation when accumulating four or fewer points by this stage and their long winless streak at home. Cagliari endures heavy travel distances for away matches, potentially affecting performance, but maintains a buffer in the league standings.
- Verona is highly motivated to secure their first win and improve their relegation-threatened standing, while Cagliari aims to capitalize on their early season points and maintain their distance from the relegation zone.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hellas Verona: 1.28, Cagliari: 2.45, Draw: 2.05 | Draw or Cagliari win | β β β ββ 60% |
| Spread | Hellas Verona: -0.25 @ -108, Cagliari: +25 @ -112 | Cagliari +0.25 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2: -122, Under 2: 102 | Under 2 goals | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hellas Verona 66% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 31% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Hellas Verona at 66% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Verona's poor form and difficult home stats against a relatively stable Cagliari side, a cautious prediction favors a Cagliari win or draw, with the possibility of a low-scoring and tightly contested match.
Predicted Score: 0-1