Match Analysis: Groningen vs FC Zwolle – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-23
- Time: 3:45 PM UTC
- Location: Euroborg, Groningen
Game Overview
This Eredivisie clash features FC Groningen hosting PEC Zwolle at Euroborg. Groningen sits 6th in the league, while PEC Zwolle is near the bottom, struggling for consistency. Recent form and head-to-head stats suggest a competitive match, but Groningen holds a clear advantage at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Groningen has been solid at home, winning 6 of their last 10 league matches with a +2 goal difference. PEC Zwolle has struggled away, failing to win in 5 of their last 6 Eredivisie road games, losing 3. Their overall form is poor, with only 2 wins in 10 matches.
- In the last 5 meetings, Groningen has won 2, drawn 2, and lost 1. The most recent match (May 18, 2025) saw PEC Zwolle win 2-0 at home. However, Groningen has not lost to PEC Zwolle at home in their last 3 encounters.
- No major injuries reported for either side. Both teams are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
- Euroborg provides a strong home advantage for Groningen, with a supportive crowd. Weather conditions are expected to be mild, with no significant impact on play.
- Groningen is fighting for a top-half finish, while PEC Zwolle is battling to avoid relegation. Both teams have strong motivation, but Groningen's home form and league position give them a psychological edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Groningen: -180, Draw: 295, FC Zwolle: 500 | Groningen to win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Groningen -1: -102, FC Zwolle +1: -118 | Groningen -1 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: -105, Under 2.75: -115 | Under 2.75 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Groningen 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 22% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Groningen is favored to win this match, with a high probability of a home victory. PEC Zwolle's poor away form and lack of recent wins make it difficult for them to challenge at Euroborg. A narrow win for Groningen is the most likely outcome.
Predicted Score: 2-0