Match Analysis: Groningen vs Ajax – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-14
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium, Groningen, Netherlands
Game Overview
Ajax, currently top of the Eredivisie with 23 wins in 29 games, enters the match on the cusp of clinching the title after a turbulent period. FC Groningen, sitting 9th with an 8-8-13 record, has struggled for consistency but recently secured a couple of high-scoring wins mixed with heavy defeats.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ajax has been dominant this season (23-4-2, 73 PTS), led by attacking players such as Weghorst (8 goals in 19 matches) and Klaassen (8 goals in 26 matches). Groningen has had an up-and-down season with recent heavy losses (e.g., 3-0 vs AZ) but also big wins (6-1 vs RKC Waalwijk).
- Ajax has historically dominated this fixture, especially in recent years, but the latest head-to-head for this season is not detailed in the available data.
- Groningen will be without Maxim Mariani and Fofana Turay, potentially weakening their squad depth.
- No major external factors reported. Ajax is highly motivated as a win could confirm their league title, while Groningen are clear underdogs hoping to finish the season on a high.
- Ajax is highly motivated to secure the league title, while Groningen is playing for pride and possibly a top-half finish.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Ajax: -165, Groningen: 350, Draw: 315 | Ajax win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
Spread | Ajax: -0.75 -119, Groningen: 75 -101 | Ajax to cover the spread (-0.75) | ★★★★☆ 78% |
Over/under | Over: 3 106, Under: 3 -126 | Over 3 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Ajax -7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ajax is the clear favorite, coming in with superior form, squad quality, and motivation. Groningen's recent defensive frailty and absenteeism further strengthen Ajax's chances, though the home side occasionally shows attacking spark.
Predicted Score: Groningen 1 – 3 Ajax