Match Analysis: Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 20, 2025
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Brazil
Game Overview
Grêmio hosts Vasco da Gama in a Brasileirão Série A match on November 20, 2025. Grêmio currently sits in 14th place while Vasco da Gama occupies 10th position in the standings. This matchup represents a mid-table clash with significant implications for both teams' playoff positioning. The teams have already met once this season, and this encounter will be the second of their campaign series.
Key Factors to Consider
- Grêmio shows mixed recent form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, maintaining an average of 1.2 goals per match while conceding 1.4 goals per match. Their home advantage at Arena do Grêmio provides a tactical advantage. Vasco da Gama has demonstrated inconsistency, winning 2 of their last 5 matches with a concerning defensive record of 1.8 goals conceded per match against 1.2 goals scored. Vasco's away form has been problematic with only 5 away victories in Serie A this season, indicating vulnerability on the road.
- The historical record between these clubs favors Grêmio significantly. In 19 recent meetings, Grêmio has won 11 times compared to Vasco da Gama's 4 victories, with 4 draws. Over a longer 33-match sample since 2004, Grêmio has won 15 games (1.4 PPG) versus Vasco da Gama's 10 wins (1.1 PPG) with 8-9 draws. Their most recent encounter on July 19, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw. The previous match on July 28, 2024, saw Grêmio secure a 1-0 victory, and before that on April 14, 2024, Grêmio won 2-1.
- The search results do not provide specific information regarding current injuries to key players on either squad. Injury data would require access to official team reports or medical updates closer to match day.
- The match is part of the Brasileirão Betano, taking place at Grêmio's home stadium which typically provides a 3-5% performance advantage. The early morning UTC kickoff time (00:30) reflects the South American time zone but does not present unusual scheduling challenges for either team.
- Grêmio seeks to improve from their 14th-place position and capitalize on home-field advantage to climb the standings. Vasco da Gama, positioned in 10th place, requires points to secure playoff qualification and must overcome their poor away record. The head-to-head dominance by Grêmio may create psychological pressure on Vasco, while Grêmio will be motivated by the historical advantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Grêmio: -125 | Draw: +225 | Vasco da Gama: +220 | Grêmio Win | ★★☆☆☆ 48% |
| Spread | Grêmio -0.25 (-105) | Vasco da Gama +25 (-115) | Grêmio -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-125) | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Grêmio 8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Grêmio at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Grêmio is favored to secure a positive result at home. Their superior recent form, home-field advantage, dominant head-to-head record (11 wins in 19 meetings), and Vasco da Gama's weak away performance create conditions favorable for a Grêmio victory or draw. However, Vasco da Gama's desperation for points and recent improvements cannot be dismissed entirely. The most probable outcomes are a Grêmio win (approximately 45-50% probability) or a draw (approximately 30-35% probability), with a Vasco da Gama away victory less likely (approximately 15-20% probability).
Predicted Score: Grêmio 1-0 Vasco da Gama (Most Likely) | Secondary: Grêmio 1-1 Vasco da Gama (Draw) | Tertiary: Grêmio 2-1 Vasco da Gama
