Match Analysis: Grêmio vs Sport Recife – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-10
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Grêmio's home stadium
Game Overview
This Campeonato Brazil matchup features Grêmio hosting Sport Recife. Grêmio has a marginally stronger recent form at home with slightly better defensive stats, while Sport Recife has shown resilience with a solid recent winning record and a low rate of conceding goals.
Key Factors to Consider
- Grêmio's recent form shows moderate attacking power with an average of ~1.32 goals scored and a solid defense conceding around 0.68 per match. Sport Recife averages 1.6 goals scored and only about 0.8 conceded in their recent matches, indicating a balanced team performance.
- Across about 24 to 25 previous encounters, Grêmio has won approximately 7-8 matches while Sport Recife has won around 10. The teams tend to have moderately high scoring games (~2.9 goals per match historically). Recent H2H is fairly balanced with slight edge to Sport Recife in wins.
- No specific recent injury data available for key players on either side, so full-strength line-ups are assumed.
- Match played at Grêmio's home ground, giving them home advantage. No unusual external factors impacting match conditions have been reported.
- Both teams are motivated to gain points in the league; Sport Recife has been on a better recent streak which could boost confidence, while Grêmio aims to leverage home advantage to recover points.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -115, away: 340, draw: 250 | Grêmio | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Grêmio -0.5: -115, Sport Recife +50: -105 | Grêmio -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | over 2.25: 105, under 2.25: -125 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Grêmio 8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Grêmio to win moneyline and cover -0.5 spread with under 2.25 goals total.
Predicted Score: 2-1