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Grêmio vs. Sao Paulo Prediction Brazil Série A in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Grêmio vs Sao Paulo – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-16
  • Time: 10:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Brazil

Game Overview

This Brasileirão match features Grêmio (13th in the league) hosting São Paulo (8th). The two teams have a competitive historical rivalry, with a balanced head-to-head record and recent matches showing mixed outcomes. São Paulo is currently positioned higher in the league standings and have slightly better recent goal-scoring form. Both teams tend to concede and score regularly, suggesting an open match.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Grêmio has shown inconsistent form, positioned 13th with defensive vulnerabilities including conceding the most penalties this season, while São Paulo, ranked 8th, have a more stable offense led by Luciano Neves with strong shot accuracy and key chance creation by Enzo Hernan Diaz. Both teams have scored multiple goals in recent games but struggle to keep clean sheets.
  • Historically evenly matched: across their last 41 meetings, Grêmio won 16 and São Paulo 10, with 15 draws. Recent seasons show fairly balanced results with Grêmio having slight home advantage at Arena do Grêmio.
  • No explicit injury data available from the search results, but no major absentee reports suggest both teams should have close to full strength squads.
  • Match played at Grêmio's home ground should slightly favor the home team, but São Paulo’s better league positioning and form reduce this effect. The match timing late in the season could heighten motivation.
  • São Paulo’s higher league rank suggests ambition for top-table points, while Grêmio may be motivated to improve standings and avoid relegation threats, adding intensity to the contest.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Grêmio: 1.95, São Paulo: 1.53, Draw: 2.15 São Paulo to win ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Grêmio: 1.09, São Paulo: 1.29 São Paulo -0 goals (draw no bet) ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2: 1.91, Under 2: 1.91 Over 2 goals ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Sao Paulo 42%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Sao Paulo at 42% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

A closely contested match with a slight edge to São Paulo due to better league form and balanced historical result. A draw or narrow away win is plausible, with goals likely on both sides given defensive issues.

Predicted Score: 1-2


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Grêmio vs. Sao Paulo Prediction

Match Analysis: Grêmio vs Sao Paulo – Prediction Match Details Date: 2025-10-16 Time: 10:00 PM UTC Location: Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Brazil Game Overview This Brasileirão match features Grêmio (13th in the league) hosting São Paulo (8th). The two teams have a competitive historical rivalry, with a balanced head-to-head record and recent matches showing […]

Grêmio October 16, 2025 Sao Paulo Soccer

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Fluminense vs. Sao Paulo Prediction Brazil Série A in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Fluminense vs Sao Paulo – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-27
  • Time: 11:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

Fluminense hosts Sao Paulo in a crucial Brasileirão Série A clash at Maracanã. Both teams are in the upper half of the table, with Fluminense currently ranked 7th and Sao Paulo 8th. The match is expected to be tightly contested, with both sides having similar recent form and a balanced head-to-head record. The stakes are high as both teams look to secure a top-six finish and potential continental qualification.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Fluminense has shown mixed form recently, winning 3 of their last 5 league matches but struggling for consistency. Sao Paulo has also been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5. Both teams have shown vulnerability defensively, with Fluminense conceding in 4 of their last 5 and Sao Paulo in 3 of their last 5. Fluminense tends to dominate possession at home, while Sao Paulo is more direct and relies on counter-attacks.
  • The historical head-to-head record is very close. In the last 25 meetings, Fluminense has won 10, Sao Paulo has won 9, and 6 ended in draws. In the last 6 meetings, Sao Paulo has won 3, Fluminense has won 2, and 1 was a draw. The most recent meeting this season ended in a 3-1 win for Sao Paulo. Fluminense has a slight edge in home meetings, but Sao Paulo has been competitive in recent years.
  • No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
  • The match will be played at Maracanã, which is a strong home advantage for Fluminense. The weather is expected to be clear with mild temperatures, ideal for football. There are no significant officiating trends or external disruptions expected.
  • Both teams are fighting for a top-six finish and potential Copa Libertadores qualification. Fluminense will be motivated to bounce back from their recent loss to Sao Paulo, while Sao Paulo will look to maintain their position and secure a strong finish to the season.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Fluminense: -120, Sao Paulo: 365, Draw: 230 Fluminense win ★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread Fluminense -0.5: -118, Sao Paulo +50: -102 Fluminense -0.5 ★★★☆☆ 55%
Over/under Over 2: -118, Under 2: -102 Over 2 ★★★☆☆ 50%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Fluminense 1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2 -8%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Fluminense at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

This match is expected to be very close, with both teams having similar strengths and weaknesses. Fluminense has a slight edge at home, but Sao Paulo has shown they can compete and win in recent meetings. The most likely outcome is a draw or a narrow win for Fluminense.

Predicted Score: 2-1


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Bragantino-SP vs. Fortaleza Prediction Brazil Série A in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Bragantino-SP vs Fortaleza – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-26
  • Time: 10:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Bragança Paulista, Brazil

Game Overview

The match is part of the 36th round of the Brasileirão Série A 2025 season. Red Bull Bragantino is hosting Fortaleza at their home stadium. Bragantino currently holds 45 points and sits 9th in the league, while Fortaleza has 34 points and is battling to avoid relegation, positioned 18th. Fortaleza has gained some momentum with recent unbeaten streaks and key player returns, making this game important for both sides.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Bragantino has a stronger position in the league with 45 points and a mid-table placement, showing stable form. Fortaleza has struggled this season but recently improved their form with six games unbeaten in the Brasileirao and earned a crucial victory against Bahia. Bragantino's home advantage and higher points total contrast with Fortaleza's fight to escape relegation.
  • Only one match this season between the two teams, with Fortaleza securing a 3-1 away win against Bragantino in July 2025, indicating Fortaleza can perform well on the road against this opponent.
  • Fortaleza likely benefits from the return of key players Lucas Sasha (midfield), Kuscevic, and Brítez (defense), improving their squad depth and stability. Fortaleza has no suspensions but four players remain sidelined (goalkeeper João Ricardo, midfielders Rodrigo and Lucca Prior, attacker Marinho). Bragantino's injury and suspension status are not specifically noted.
  • The match is at Bragantino's home ground in Bragança Paulista, potentially favoring the home team. Fortaleza's travel demands for away games and the psychological boost from recent results may influence dynamics.
  • Bragantino, sitting mid-table, may focus on securing European competition qualification or a strong season finish. Fortaleza is motivated by relegation avoidance, needing points urgently to climb out of the bottom three, intensifying their competitive urgency.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Bragantino-SP: 111, Fortaleza: 235, Draw: 240 Bragantino-SP Win ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Bragantino-SP -0.25: -118, Fortaleza +25: -102 Bragantino-SP -0.25 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.5: -110, Under 2.5: -110 Under 2.5 Goals ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Bragantino-SP 6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Bragantino-SP at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

A closely contested match is expected, with Bragantino favored due to home advantage and higher league position but Fortaleza capable of pulling an upset driven by their recent form and key player returns. A narrow home win or draw seems most plausible.

Predicted Score: 2-1


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Atletico Mineiro vs. Flamengo Prediction Brazil Série A in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Atletico Mineiro vs Flamengo – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-26
  • Time: 12:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Game Overview

This is a high-stakes clash between Atletico Mineiro and Flamengo in the Brasileirão Betano, with both teams having contrasting league positions and recent form. Flamengo currently leads the league, while Atletico Mineiro sits mid-table. The match is expected to be intense, with both sides having strong attacking options and a history of close encounters.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Flamengo has been in excellent form, winning 9 away games in Serie A this season and consistently scoring goals. Atletico Mineiro has shown mixed results, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches but conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game. Flamengo has kept the most clean sheets in the competition (16) and has a strong attacking record, scoring 14 goals in their last 5 matches.
  • In the last 50 meetings, Flamengo has won 21 games, Atletico Mineiro has won 18, and there have been 11 draws. Flamengo has a slight edge in recent head-to-head encounters, winning 3 of the last 5 matches. The average goals per game in these encounters is around 2.7, with both teams scoring frequently.
  • Atletico Mineiro will be without Igor Gomes (suspension), Alan Franco (injury), Junior Santos (injury), Lyanco (injury), and Tomas Cuello (injury). Flamengo will be missing Allan (injury), Leo Ortiz (injury), and Pedro (injury). These absences could impact both teams' defensive and attacking capabilities.
  • The match will be played at Arena MRV, which is Atletico Mineiro's home ground. The home advantage could play a role, but Flamengo's strong away form might neutralize this. The weather is expected to be clear, with no significant impact on the game.
  • Flamengo is fighting to maintain their league lead, while Atletico Mineiro is looking to improve their position and secure a top-half finish. Both teams have strong motivation to win, but Flamengo's title aspirations add extra pressure.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Atletico Mineiro: 300, Flamengo: -110, Draw: 245 Flamengo ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Atletico Mineiro: 50 -112, Flamengo: -0.5 -108 Flamengo -0.5 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over: 2.25 -112, Under: 2.25 -108 Over 2.25 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Flamengo 5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.25 14%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.25 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Flamengo is favored to win this match due to their superior form, strong away record, and better head-to-head recent results. However, Atletico Mineiro's home advantage and the absence of key players for both teams could make the game more competitive than the odds suggest.

Predicted Score: Atletico Mineiro 1-2 Flamengo


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Grêmio vs. Palmeiras Prediction Brazil Série A in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Grêmio vs Palmeiras – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-26
  • Time: 12:30 AM UTC
  • Location: Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre

Game Overview

This Brasileirão Betano clash pits Grêmio, currently in 12th, against Palmeiras, who sit in 2nd. The match is a key fixture for both teams, with Palmeiras aiming to maintain their title challenge and Grêmio seeking points to climb the table. Recent form and head-to-head stats heavily favor Palmeiras, but home advantage could play a role for Grêmio.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Palmeiras have been in strong form, winning 9 away games this season and consistently scoring. Grêmio have struggled for consistency, with only 1 win in their last 6 meetings against Palmeiras. Palmeiras have scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches, while Grêmio's attack has been less prolific.
  • Palmeiras hold a dominant record, with 15 wins, 5 losses, and 7 draws in the last 27 meetings. In the last 6 meetings, Palmeiras have won 3, drawn 2, and lost 1. The most recent meeting ended 1-3 in favor of Palmeiras.
  • No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
  • The match will be played at Arena do Grêmio, which typically provides a strong home advantage for Grêmio. However, Palmeiras have a proven track record of winning away games, including against top teams.
  • Palmeiras are in a tight title race and need points to keep pace with the league leaders. Grêmio are fighting to avoid relegation and will be highly motivated to secure a positive result at home.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Grêmio 220, Palmeiras 132, Draw 212 Palmeiras ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Grêmio 25 -120, Palmeiras -0.25 100 Palmeiras -0.25 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over 2.25 -110, Under 2.25 -110 Over 2.25 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Palmeiras -0%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.25 11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.25 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Palmeiras are favored to win this match due to their superior form, head-to-head record, and away performance. Grêmio may put up a fight at home, but Palmeiras' attacking quality and consistency make them the likely winners.

Predicted Score: Grêmio 1-2 Palmeiras


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Internacional vs. Santos Prediction Brazil Série A in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Internacional vs Santos – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-25
  • Time: 12:00 AM UTC
  • Location: Estádio Beira-Rio, Porto Alegre, Brazil

Game Overview

The match is a key fixture in Matchday 35 of the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A where Internacional hosts Santos FC. Internacional currently holds 40 points with a mid-table position, having won 10, drawn 10 and lost 14 games, and comes off a 2-1 victory against Ceará. Santos is close in points, separated by only three points from Internacional, with the need to gain momentum. Both teams have recent mixed form, but Internacional benefits from home advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Internacional has a recent form of W-D-L-L-D across all competitions, while Santos records D-W-L-L-D. Internacional is showing slightly better recent results including a last win over Santos by 2-1. They have 10 wins this season but also 14 losses, showing some inconsistency. Santos is struggling to recover consistent wins and has had three losses in their last six away matches.
  • Historically, the two teams have met 43 times: Internacional has won 15 matches, Santos 12, with 16 draws. The most recent encounter ended in a 2-1 win for Internacional. The rivalry is balanced with a slight edge to Internacional when playing at home.
  • Internacional will miss Sergio Rochet and Ronaldo due to rulings. Additionally, Tabata and Carbonero are unavailable due to suspensions from red cards in the last match. Santos have their full squad available for selection with no reported injuries.
  • The match will be played at Estádio Beira-Rio with VAR in use and the referee yet to be decided. Home advantage and crowd support may favor Internacional. There are no adverse weather or pitch conditions reported.
  • Santos urgently needs points to improve their standing, while Internacional aims to consolidate their mid-table position and leverage home advantage. Recent win over Santos boosts Internacional's confidence.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Internacional: 115, Santos: 260, Draw: 212 Internacional ★★★★☆ 70%
Spread Internacional: -0.25 @ -120, Santos: +25 @ 100 Internacional -0.25 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.25: -118, Under 2.25: -102 Over 2.25 goals ★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Internacional 2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Over 2.25 -4%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Internacional at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Internacional is favored to win narrowly due to home advantage and recent head-to-head success, with a predicted close scoreline.

Predicted Score: Internacional 2 – 1 Santos


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Mirassol vs. Ceará Prediction Brazil Série A in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Mirassol vs Ceará – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-24
  • Time: 10:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol

Game Overview

Mirassol hosts Ceará in a crucial Brasileirão Betano match, with both teams having contrasting league positions and recent form. Mirassol sits comfortably in 4th place, while Ceará struggles in 13th, fighting for mid-table stability. The match promises tactical intensity, with Mirassol favored at home and Ceará seeking an away upset.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Mirassol has been solid this season, boasting 16 wins, 12 draws, and 6 losses in 34 matches, with a +21 goal difference. Their home form is strong, and they have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings. Ceará, meanwhile, has 11 wins, 9 draws, and 14 losses, with a balanced goal difference. Their away record is mixed, but they have managed four away wins this season.
  • In the last 5 meetings, Mirassol has won 3, Ceará has won 1, and 1 match ended in a draw. The aggregate score is 8-6 in favor of Mirassol. The most recent encounter was a 2-0 win for Mirassol. Mirassol has shown consistent dominance in these fixtures.
  • No major injuries reported for either side as of the latest updates. Both teams are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
  • The match will be played at Mirassol's home ground, which typically provides a strong home advantage. Weather conditions are expected to be favorable, with no significant disruptions anticipated.
  • Mirassol is motivated to maintain their top-four position and push for a continental spot. Ceará is fighting to avoid relegation and secure a safe mid-table finish, adding urgency to their performance.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Ceará: 450, Mirassol: -157, Draw: 270 Mirassol ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Ceará: 75 100, Mirassol: -0.75 -120 Mirassol -0.75 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over: 2.25 -112, Under: 2.25 -108 Under 2.25 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Mirassol 1%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.25 25%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 25% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mirassol is favored to win this match due to their superior form, home advantage, and strong head-to-head record. Ceará may put up a fight, but Mirassol's consistency and recent dominance suggest a home victory is the most likely outcome.

Predicted Score: 2-0


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Cruzeiro vs. Corinthians Prediction Brazil Série A in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Cruzeiro vs Corinthians – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-23
  • Time: 11:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Governador Magalhães Pinto, Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Game Overview

The Brasileirão match between Cruzeiro and Corinthians will take place at Cruzeiro's home ground. Both teams display competitive recent form with close head-to-head statistics, indicating a tightly contested game. Cruzeiro benefits from home advantage, while Corinthians have shown resilience and moderate strength in away fixtures.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Cruzeiro's recent performances show them capable of creating many scoring opportunities and excelling offensively at home. Corinthians have a balanced record with both wins and draws in recent matches including a previous 0-0 draw against Cruzeiro, highlighting defensive solidity but some challenges in attack.
  • Across their last 35 encounters, Corinthians hold a slight edge with 43% wins compared to Cruzeiro's 40%, while 17% ended in draws. Recent meetings suggest a competitive balance with relatively low scoring averages.
  • No specific injury updates for either side are currently available that would significantly alter the expected lineups or strategies for the match.
  • The match will be played at night in Belo Horizonte, which could favor the home team accustomed to local conditions. There are no reported weather or other external disruptions.
  • Both teams are motivated to secure crucial points in the Brasileirão standings at this stage of the season. Home advantage strengthens Cruzeiro's incentive, while Corinthians aim to prove their away capabilities.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Corinthians: 380, Cruzeiro: -128, Draw: 240 Cruzeiro win ★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread Corinthians: 50 @ 105, Cruzeiro: -0.5 @ -125 Cruzeiro -0.5 ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 2.25: 100, Under 2.25: -120 Under 2.25 goals ★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Cruzeiro -2%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.25 10%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

A narrow victory for Cruzeiro is favored given home advantage and offensive strengths, but a draw is a plausible outcome considering the defensive discipline of both teams and recent head-to-head results.

Predicted Score: 1-0


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Sport Recife vs. Vitoria Prediction Brazil Série A in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Sport Recife vs Vitoria – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-23
  • Time: 9:30 PM UTC
  • Location: Ilha do Retiro, Recife, Brazil

Game Overview

Sport Recife hosts Vitoria in a crucial Brasileirão Série A clash. Both teams are battling for survival, with Sport Recife in 20th place and Vitoria in 17th. The match is expected to be tense, with both sides struggling for form and goals. Recent head-to-head results show a clear edge for Vitoria, who have dominated the last five meetings.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Sport Recife is in dire form, having lost their last six matches and scoring only two goals in their last five games. They have conceded 63 goals in 34 matches, the worst defensive record in the league. Vitoria, while not in great form, are slightly better, with two wins in their last five and a more balanced defensive record. Vitoria have not lost to Sport Recife in their last five meetings (3 wins, 2 draws).
  • In the last 24 meetings, Sport Recife has won 6 times, Vitoria has won 10 times, and 8 have ended in draws. Vitoria have a clear psychological edge, having not lost to Sport Recife in their last five encounters. The last five meetings have seen Vitoria win 3 and draw 2, with Sport Recife failing to win any.
  • Sport Recife has Ruben Ramos out for the season due to injury. No major injuries reported for Vitoria.
  • Sport Recife is playing at home, but their home form is poor, with only one win in their last nine home matches. Vitoria have shown resilience in away matches, with three wins in their last five away games. The match is being played in Recife, which could provide some motivation for Sport Recife, but their recent performances suggest they are unlikely to capitalize.
  • Both teams are fighting to avoid relegation. Sport Recife is in last place and desperate for points, while Vitoria are just above the relegation zone and need to secure their safety. The stakes are high, and both teams are likely to be highly motivated.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Sport Recife: 255, Vitoria: 105, Draw: 240 Vitoria ★★★★☆ 75%
Spread Sport Recife: 25 108, Vitoria: -0.25 -128 Vitoria -0.25 ★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under Over: 2.5 102, Under: 2.5 -122 Under 2.5 ★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Vitoria 7%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 18%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 22.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Vitoria is favored to win or at least avoid defeat, given their superior form, head-to-head record, and defensive solidity. Sport Recife's poor form and defensive record make them vulnerable, but their home advantage and desperation could lead to a close match. A draw or narrow Vitoria win is the most likely outcome.

Predicted Score: 1-1


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Bahia vs. Vasco da Gama Prediction Brazil Série A in Soccer

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Match Analysis: Bahia vs Vasco da Gama – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-11-23
  • Time: 7:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, Brazil

Game Overview

A Brasileirão Série A match between Bahia and Vasco da Gama at Bahia's home ground, Arena Fonte Nova. Bahia currently ranks higher in the league and has shown stronger recent performance compared to Vasco da Gama.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Bahia has scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches and ranks 7th in the league standings, showing consistent attacking strength and chance creation, led by Éverton Ribeiro. Vasco da Gama has scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches, holding a lower league position (12th) with some defensive vulnerabilities, having failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 consecutive games.
  • Historically, the head-to-head is competitive with Bahia leading slightly: Bahia has won around 9-11 games, Vasco da Gama 7-10, and 5-6 draws out of the last 21 matches. Matches tend to be close but Bahia has a minor advantage overall.
  • No specific injury data provided in the sources for either side, indicating an expected full or near-full squad availability for both teams.
  • Bahia plays at home with fan support at Arena Fonte Nova, which historically benefits them. There are no unusual external conditions reported that could significantly affect match dynamics.
  • Bahia is motivated to secure points to strengthen their top-half position, while Vasco da Gama aims to improve their league standing from 12th place, making this a vital match for both teams.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Bahia: -150, Vasco da Gama: 400, Draw: 280 Bahia win ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Bahia: -0.75 -112, Vasco da Gama: +75 -108 Bahia -0.75 ★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under Over 2.5: -110, Under 2.5: -110 Under 2.5 goals ★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Bahia -3%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 2.5 15%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Bahia is favored to win based on home advantage, better current form, and a positive head-to-head record. The match is expected to be competitive but with a slight edge to Bahia to secure all three points.

Predicted Score: 2-1


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