Match Analysis: Grêmio vs Juventude – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-26
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio do Grêmio, Porto Alegre
Game Overview
Grêmio, in need of points for league stability, hosts relegation-threatened Juventude, which is struggling severely on the road. The home team is a clear betting favorite, but Juventude showed brief signs of life with a rare win last round. Still, both teams have been inconsistent, with Grêmio slightly stronger in attack and Juventude porous defensively.
Key Factors to Consider
- Grêmio averages more goals scored (1.1 to 0.8) and has a stronger recent home record than Juventude away, where the visitors have just 1 win, 2 draws, and 11 losses[1][4]. Juventude’s defense is the second-worst in the league (53 goals conceded), while Grêmio’s attack has been inconsistent.
- Grêmio won the last meeting 2-0 away in June 2025[5]. Overall, Grêmio has 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses in the last 10, holding a slight historical edge[1].
- No major injuries reported in current sources.
- Juventude is desperate for points to avoid relegation, which may push them to play more cautiously on the road. Grêmio, with home advantage, is expected to control tempo and field position.
- Grêmio is motivated to secure a top-half finish, Juventude fights for survival—pressure could impact both sides' risk tolerance.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Grêmio -141, Juventude +390, Draw +265 | Grêmio | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Grêmio -0.75 (-105), Juventude +75 (-115) | Grêmio -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25 (-110), Under 2.25 (-110) | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 67% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Grêmio -20% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 28% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 28% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
No prediction available.
Predicted Score: Grêmio 1–0 Juventude