Match Analysis: Grêmio vs Cruzeiro – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-05
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Arena do Grêmio
Game Overview
Grêmio hosts Cruzeiro in a high-stakes Brasileirão clash. Cruzeiro enters as favorites with superior form and the league's top scorer, Kaio Jorge, while Grêmio struggles for consistency and has conceded the most penalties this season. Recent H2H favors Grêmio, but Cruzeiro's attacking firepower and setpiece threat loom large.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cruzeiro is 8-3-2 (27 PTS), ranked 3rd away, and has scored 6 goals in their last 5 matches. Grêmio is 4-4-5 (16 PTS), has scored 5 goals in their last 5, and has conceded the most penalties this season (10).
- Grêmio leads H2H 14-11-8, but Cruzeiro won the most recent meeting 4-1 on July 13, 2025.
- No major injuries reported for either side.
- Cruzeiro is ranked 3rd away from home this season and is extremely likely to score from a setpiece. Grêmio will dominate in the air but is vulnerable defensively.
- Cruzeiro is pushing for the title, while Grêmio is fighting to avoid relegation, giving both teams strong motivation but Cruzeiro a slight edge in form and confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 215, away: 130, draw: 220 | Cruzeiro | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | away: -102, home: -118 | Cruzeiro -0.25 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | over: -112, under: -108 | Over 2.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cruzeiro 20% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.25 4% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Cruzeiro at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cruzeiro to win and cover the -0.25 spread, with the game going over 2.25 goals.
Predicted Score: Grêmio 1-2 Cruzeiro