Match Analysis: Grêmio vs Bragantino-SP – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-10
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, BRA
Game Overview
The upcoming match between Grêmio and Red Bull Bragantino-SP is a Brazilian Campeonato Série A fixture taking place at Grêmio's home ground in Porto Alegre. Grêmio, currently 9th in the league, face Bragantino, placed 15th. Both teams have scored and conceded a similar number of goals recently, with Grêmio showing slightly better form at home. This fixture is critical as both sides look to climb the table, with Grêmio aiming to leverage home advantage and Bragantino seeking an upset on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Grêmio holds a mid-table position with 2 goals scored and 3 conceded in recent matches, maintaining moderate attacking and defensive balance. Bragantino has struggled more, positioned lower in the table with a comparatively weaker defense and offense. Grêmio's recent clean sheets are zero but they have slightly more shots on goal (8 vs. 7) indicating a marginally better attacking threat.
- Recent head-to-head data points to a balanced contest historically, though specific recent encounters show no distinct dominance. Both teams have scored in past meetings but outcomes have been mixed, making this a competitive matchup.
- No detailed injury data is available from current sources for this specific match, suggesting no major absences reported for either squad.
- Playing at home is an important factor favoring Grêmio, given their comfortable familiarity with Arena do Grêmio and supportive home fans. Weather and pitch conditions are presumed normal for Porto Alegre in May with no disruptions expected.
- Grêmio is motivated to secure points to push towards the top half of the table and possibly qualify for continental tournaments, while Bragantino is fighting to improve their league standing and avoid relegation zone proximity.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Bragantino-SP: 2.1, Grêmio: 1.3, Draw: 2.4 | Grêmio Win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Bragantino-SP: -120, Grêmio: 100 | Grêmio -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -118, Under 2.25: -102 | Under 2.25 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Grêmio 33% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Grêmio at 33% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Grêmio to win narrowly, capitalizing on home advantage and slightly superior team form.
Predicted Score: 2-1