Match Analysis: Go Ahead Eagles vs Excelsior – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-26
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Deventer, Netherlands
Game Overview
Go Ahead Eagles host Excelsior in a Netherlands Eredivisie clash where both sides are striving for important points. Go Ahead Eagles have moderate home form with a tendency to score but concede as well. Excelsior has struggled away but can score. The matchup historically favors Go Ahead Eagles with more wins and draws in their favor.
Key Factors to Consider
- Go Ahead Eagles have mixed recent form at home (D W L D) and overall low points per game (1.11). They score an average of 1.5 goals at home but concede 1.5 as well. Excelsior's away form is weaker with low scoring trends and defensive challenges. Both teams have shown 50-80% BTTS (both teams to score) rate in respective contexts.
- In 16 meetings, Go Ahead Eagles lead with 7 wins vs. Excelsior's 3, and 6 draws. Go Ahead Eagles have a 44% win rate in these meetings compared to 19% for Excelsior, indicating a historical advantage for the hosts.
- No specific major injury data available at present; assume mostly full-strength squads with no critical absences reported.
- Match played in neutral weather conditions with no major disruptions expected. Home crowd support could be a factor for Go Ahead Eagles.
- Both sides need points; Go Ahead Eagles may be slightly more motivated to capitalize on home advantage and historical edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -128, away: 290, draw: 305 | Go Ahead Eagles win | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | go_ahead_eagles_-0.75: 102, excelsior_+75: -122 | Go Ahead Eagles -0.75 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | over_3: -122, under_3: 102 | Over 3 goals | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Go Ahead Eagles 7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Go Ahead Eagles at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Go Ahead Eagles moneyline win
Predicted Score: 3-1