Match Analysis: Girona vs Villarreal – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-05-10
- Time: 4:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona
Game Overview
Girona, currently struggling in 15th place in La Liga with 34 points (9-7-12), hosts Villarreal, who are performing much stronger with 44 points (12-8-7). Villarreal boasts a more potent attack, led by Alex Perez (16 goals), while Girona's leading scorer, C. Stuani, has 9 goals this season. Villarreal recently drew 2-2 with Girona in December 2024 and has a slight recent head-to-head edge. Girona is coming off a tough loss to Real Betis (1-3) and a draw with Leganes, while Villarreal's recent form includes a win over Betis and a heavy loss to Celta Vigo. Key factors include Villarreal's attacking form, Girona's defensive vulnerability (51 goals conceded), and recent trends favoring Villarreal in head-to-head encounters[1][2][3].
Key Factors to Consider
- Villarreal is the stronger side this season, ranking higher in the table with a better goal difference and recent results, including a win over Betis and a draw with Real Sociedad. Girona has struggled defensively and is in the lower half of the table[1][2][3].
- Recent head-to-head results are close, with both teams winning and drawing in the last five meetings. However, Villarreal has a slight edge in recent away games, including a 1-0 win and a 2-1 win at Girona in the last two seasons[1][2].
- No major injuries reported for either team at this time.
- Girona's home form is mixed, with some recent struggles, and Villarreal's attacking unit is in good form, notably Alex Perez (2 goals in last match)[2].
- Villarreal is chasing European spots, while Girona is battling to avoid relegation, which could inject intensity into both sides.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Girona: 210, Villarreal: 115, Draw: 275 | Villarreal ML | Medium-High (68%) |
Spread | Girona: 25 -108, Villarreal: -0.25 -112 | Villarreal -0.25 | Medium (60%) |
Over/under | Over 3: -102, Under 3: -118 | Over 3 goals | Medium (55%) |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Villarreal 3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 3 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Villarreal at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Villarreal is favored due to superior form, stronger attack, and recent head-to-head trends. The data suggests a narrow away victory or a high-scoring draw is likely[1][2][5].
Predicted Score: 1-2 (Villarreal)