Match Analysis: Getafe vs Alavés – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-24
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Coliseum Alfonso Pérez
Game Overview
Getafe hosts Alavés in a tightly contested La Liga matchup where both teams have exhibited mixed form. Getafe has a slight edge at home but Alavés is capable of an upset, making this an evenly balanced affair with potential for a low to moderate scoring game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Getafe shows moderate home strength with a 41.8% simulated win probability but has inconsistent recent results. Alavés has struggled on the road but can capitalize on defensive lapses by Getafe. Recent form trends show cautious but competitive play from both sides.
- H2H meetings are fairly even with a slight historical advantage to Getafe. Past encounters frequently end in draws or narrow margins, indicating competitive balance.
- No major injury news affecting starting lineups for either team, so both can field near full-strength squads.
- Weather and pitch conditions at Estadio Coliseum Alfonso Pérez expected to be normal and unlikely to affect play significantly.
- Mid-season positioning pushes both teams to secure points; Getafe aims to consolidate mid-table status while Alavés seeks to climb from lower ranks, slightly incentivizing both to play cautiously.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Getafe: 130, Alavés: 255, Draw: 195 | Getafe | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Spread | Getafe -0.25: -108, Alavés +25: -112 | Getafe -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Over/under | Over 1.75: 100, Under 1.75: -120 | Under 1.75 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Getafe 10% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 1.75 14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.75 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Getafe win; Spread: Getafe -0.25; Over/Under: Under 1.75 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0