Match Analysis: Genoa vs Parma – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-19
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Game Overview
Genoa hosts Parma in a Serie A clash between two struggling teams at the lower end of the table. Genoa has slightly better form and historical edge, while Parma struggles for wins and goals.
Key Factors to Consider
- Genoa sits 14th with 5 points from 6 matches (1W-2D-3L), showing marginally better performance than Parma at 19th with 2 points (0W-2D-4L). Recent form favors Genoa but neither team is in strong shape.
- In 28 matches, Genoa leads slightly with 9 home wins vs Parma's 10 away wins overall; recent fixtures show tight affairs with Genoa winning last meeting 1-0 and historically low scoring games averaging 2.64 goals per match.
- No specific injury reports indicate major absences, suggesting fairly full squads from both sides, maintaining balanced contest conditions.
- The match is held at Genoaβs home ground Luigo Ferraris with potential home advantage amidst pressure to improve league standing.
- Genoa has better motivation to halt a negative streak (0-3 last 5 games) and gain crucial points at home, while Parma seeks their first league win but faces challenging away form.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Genoa +114, Parma +302, Draw +213 | Genoa | β β β ββ 68% |
Spread | Genoa -0.25 -126, Parma +25 +106 | Genoa -0.25 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2 -118, Under 2 -102 | Under 2 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Genoa 3% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 29% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Genoa Win; Spread: Genoa -0.25; Over/Under: Under 2 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0