Match Analysis: FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-01
- Time: 2:30 PM UTC
- Location: Mewa Arena, Mainz, Germany
Game Overview
This Bundesliga clash sees FSV Mainz 05, struggling near the relegation zone with poor home form, host Werder Bremen, a more consistent mid-table side. Mainz's recent 4-1 win shows attacking potential but defensive vulnerabilities persist. Bremen have mixed form but are playing with more confidence after a recent win.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mainz has lost all recent home matches and sits 16th in the league with only 4 points. Werder Bremen has 11 points, better recent form, and recovered well after their latest performances, including a draw and a win recently.
- In their last 34 encounters, Mainz has won 10 times, Bremen 11 times, with multiple draws. Mainz has struggled at home specifically versus Bremen, losing four consecutive home matches.
- No significant injuries reported affecting key attacking players on either side. Both teams appear close to full strength.
- No notable external factors such as weather or stadium issues; standard conditions at Mewa Arena.
- Mainz is desperate for points due to relegation threat, which could increase their attacking urgency but may leave defensive gaps. Bremen aims to build on recent momentum to secure a top-half finish.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -103, away: 245, draw: 285 | Away | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | home_minus_50: -102, away_plus_50: -118 | Away +0.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | over_3: -115, under_3: -105 | Over 3 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Werder Bremen 93% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Werder Bremen at 93% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Back Werder Bremen moneyline for an away win as highest EV play, supported by better form and Mainz's poor home record. Expect a competitive high-scoring match favoring Bremen.
Predicted Score: 1-2