Match Analysis: Fortaleza vs Ceará – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-13
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Fortaleza
Game Overview
This is a regional rivalry match between Fortaleza and Ceará, two teams from Ceará state competing in the 2025 Campeonato Brasileiro Série A. Fortaleza is the home team with historically poor home form this season, while Ceará are the away team with similarly weak away performances.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fortaleza's home form is underwhelming with only 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, showing vulnerability at home. Ceará have a poor away record with 0 wins and 3 losses, indicating struggles on the road. Both teams have moderate goal averages and around 50% BTTS rates in recent matches.
- Recent head-to-head fixtures demonstrate a tight rivalry with a balanced number of wins for both sides and several draws. Matches often feature limited goal differences reflecting competitive parity.
- No significant injuries reported affecting key players for either side, so full-strength squads are expected.
- No notable external factors like weather or travel issues significantly impacting the match. The stadium venue is Fortaleza's home ground, which should confer some advantage despite recent form.
- Motivation is high for both teams to secure points as they compete to avoid relegation zones, with local rivalry adding intensity to the encounter.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Fortaleza 1.35, Ceará 2.25, Draw 2.15 | Fortaleza | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Fortaleza -0.25 (-102), Ceará +25 (-118) | Ceará +0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2 -125, Under 2 +105 | Under 2 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Fortaleza 36% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Fortaleza at 36% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fortaleza to win on moneyline given home advantage and slight superiority despite recent form; consider spread in favor of Ceará due to Fortaleza's inconsistency; expect under 2.5 goals given cautious play in rivalry matches.
Predicted Score: 1-0