Match Analysis: Fortaleza vs Bahia – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-19
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Governador Placido Castelo
Game Overview
Fortaleza hosts Bahia in a Brazilian Serie A match where Bahia currently shows stronger recent form and statistical superiority. Fortaleza is enduring a significant slump, including consecutive home losses, while Bahia comes with momentum from a series of wins and draws.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fortaleza has lost their last five matches, have the worst recent home form with 4 straight home defeats, and have conceded 19 goals this season, close to the worst defensive record in the league. Bahia is undefeated in their last five games, winning four, and has better overall points position and defensive record.
- The last 16 matches between these teams are tightly contested with Bahia slightly ahead: 7 wins for Bahia, 6 for Fortaleza, and 3 draws. Bahia have won 3 of the last 4 fixtures, indicating current dominance.
- No notable injury information was reported that would heavily affect the lineups or strategies for either side.
- Bahia recently played a Copa Sudamericana match and drew 0-0, indicating good squad fitness and competitive sharpness. Fortaleza’s morale is likely low due to prolonged poor form.
- Bahia is motivated to consolidate their upper-table position and maintain their unbeaten run, while Fortaleza is fighting to halt a downward spiral, but their poor recent results diminish their confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Fortaleza: 1.65, Bahia: 1.75, Draw: 2.2 | Bahia | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Fortaleza 0: -115, Bahia 0: -105 | Bahia 0 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: 1, Under 2.25: -1.2 | Over 2.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Bahia 24% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.25 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Bahia at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bahia to win with over 2.25 goals.
Predicted Score: 1-2