Match Analysis: Fluminense vs Juventude – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-17
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Maracanã Stadium, Rio de Janeiro
Game Overview
Fluminense hosts Juventude in a Brasileirão Serie A match where Fluminense, currently 7th with solid home form, faces a struggling Juventude, sitting 19th and in a relegation battle.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fluminense has shown resilience at home with 11 wins in 26 matches and a positive goal difference, while Juventude has only 6 wins and a -30 goal differential, highlighting defensive frailty and limited scoring.
- Recent H2H matchups favor Fluminense, who generally assert dominance over Juventude in this fixture with higher win rates and control in physical and technical aspects.
- No significant injuries reported for Fluminense impacting starting XI, while Juventude has minor squad availability issues but no key starters missing.
- Home advantage at Maracanã and fan support strongly favor Fluminense; weather conditions expected to be normal with no disruption.
- Fluminense seeks to consolidate a top-half spot and possibly push for continental qualification, whereas Juventude battles relegation, which may increase their defensive caution but also desperation.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Fluminense: -300, Juventude: +875, Draw: +370 | Fluminense | ★★★★☆ 78% |
Spread | Fluminense -1.25: -120, Juventude +1.25: +100 | Fluminense -1.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.5: +105, Under 2.5: -125 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Fluminense -11% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fluminense to win on the moneyline, covering the -1.25 goal spread, with total goals expected under 2.5
Predicted Score: 2-0