Match Analysis: Fluminense vs Botafogo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
A Carioca derby between Fluminense and Botafogo in the Brazil Campeonato, featuring two teams with fluctuating recent form and closely matched historical performance, with Fluminense as slight favorites playing at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Botafogo shows a stronger recent form (11W-6D-6L) compared to Fluminense's inconsistent results (9W-4D-9L) including draws and losses at home. Botafogo won their recent encounter 2-0 in April 2025, indicating they can defeat Fluminense even away. Fluminense’s home form is mixed with 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss in last three games.
- Across 59 matches, Botafogo has 19 wins against Fluminense, showing competitive historical balance. Recent results favor Botafogo with a 2-0 win in April 2025, but home advantage and derby motivation can swing outcomes.
- No major injuries reported for either side affecting key starters, implying both teams will likely field near full-strength squads.
- Playing at Maracanã gives Fluminense home advantage. Weather and pitch conditions expected normal for Rio de Janeiro late September, unlikely to affect game significantly.
- Both teams are motivated due to league standings impact and local rivalry. Botafogo’s momentum and previous win over Fluminense add confidence, but home crowd support boosts Fluminense’s drive.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | +215 | Botafogo | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Spread | -128 | Botafogo +0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | -119 | Under 2 Goals | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Botafogo 58% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Botafogo at 58% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Botafogo Moneyline
Predicted Score: 1-1