Match Analysis: Flamengo vs Sao Paulo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-12
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã)
Game Overview
A high-stakes Campeonato Brasileiro match between in-form Flamengo, who have been dominant at home and scoring heavily, and Sao Paulo, struggling for consistency and defensively vulnerable recently. Flamengo leads the league in clean sheets and goalscoring, while Sao Paulo hasn't kept a clean sheet in their last 8 matches. The rivalry is historically tight, but recent momentum is with Flamengo.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo is in excellent form, scoring 13 goals in their last 5 matches and keeping the most clean sheets in the competition (8). Sao Paulo has scored only 6 goals in their last 5 matches and not kept a clean sheet in 8 games.
- Historically close: recent head-to-head is nearly even (Flamengo 13-14-9 vs Sao Paulo), but Flamengo has won 3 of the last 5, with only one loss. Over the last 5, Flamengo averages 2.6 goals per match, conceding 1.2. Sao Paulo averages 1.2 goals for, 1.8 conceded.
- No major injury news reported for either team as of latest updates.
- The match is at Flamengo's home ground, Maracanã, where they have a strong record and high fan support.
- Flamengo is fighting for top of the table and has momentum. Sao Paulo needs to recover form and confidence.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo -215 / Sao Paulo 655 / Draw 325 | Flamengo | ★★★★☆ 82% |
Spread | Flamengo -1 (-125) / Sao Paulo +1 (105) | Flamengo -1 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 (-114) / Under 2.25 (-106) | Over | ★★★★☆ 73% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.25 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.25 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo is the clear favorite based on current form, home advantage, and recent head-to-head results.
Predicted Score: 3-1