Match Analysis: Flamengo vs Santos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Game Overview
Flamengo, currently 2nd in the Campeonato Brasileiro, hosts Santos, who sit at 16th, in a key league match. Flamengo is favored significantly given their superior ranking, home advantage at Maracanã, and recent form. Santos has historically struggled against Flamengo, but individual stars like Neymar remain threats. The match is expected to be competitive, with Flamengo strongly aiming for a win to maintain top standing.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo has demonstrated strong form this season with consistent victories and high-scoring games. Santos, in contrast, has had mixed results and sits near relegation zone, reflecting struggles particularly in away matches.
- Of 37 total meetings, Flamengo holds a 46% win rate, Santos 27%, and there have been 27% draws. Flamengo's recent victory over Santos was 2-1 this season, showcasing dominance. Historical average goals per match in this fixture is about 2.49.
- No explicit information on current injuries for either side was available, suggesting both teams likely to field near-full strength squads.
- The match at the iconic Maracanã provides Flamengo a strong home atmosphere advantage. Weather or other external conditions are not noted as impactful.
- Flamengo is motivated to secure a home win to maintain or improve their high league position and push for the title, while Santos is fighting to escape relegation, adding pressure but also potential desperation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -325, away: 868, draw: 445 | Flamengo win | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Flamengo_-1.5: -106, Santos_+1.5: -114 | Flamengo -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | over_2.75: 106, under_2.75: -126 | Under 2.75 goals | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Flamengo -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 -1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo is predicted to win the match based on superior form, league position, and historical dominance over Santos, with a moderately high confidence level.
Predicted Score: 2-0